The forward dilemma: expensive upside vs cheap enablers
The forward position presents FPL's sharpest trade-off. Erling Haaland has redefined what a premium forward can do — 200+ points in a single season — but at £15m+ he consumes a sixth of your budget. At the other extreme, a £4.5m enabler who occasionally returns 4 points while you load midfield is a legitimate squad strategy.
The question for 2026-27, as every season, is whether a given premium forward's expected returns justify his price over the alternatives you could buy with that money. The key test: does missing him cost you rank every week, or only occasionally? The more consistently transformative he is, the more mandatory his ownership becomes.
Premium forwards: when the price is right
A premium forward (£10m+) earns his price through volume: goals, assists, bonus points, and set-piece involvement. The ideal profile is a penalty-taking central striker at a dominant top-six team with easy early fixtures. In this bracket, the player essentially has a guaranteed points route every week — a penalty alone is worth 5 points — which makes the premium sustainable.
If the season's standout premium forward has favourable opening fixtures, buy him at the start and ride the price rise. Selling early to chase fixtures rarely works — the premium players haul regardless of opponent more often than expected.
Mid-price forwards: the underexplored bracket
The £7m–£9.5m forward bracket is routinely undervalued. These are players who are first-choice strikers or advanced attackers for strong Premier League clubs, priced below the elite tier because they are not the household names that drive high ownership.
A striker guaranteed to start every week for a top-eight club, involved in set pieces, at £7.5m outperforms most expectations. The market often prices these players at a discount until they haul two or three times — buy before the crowd, not after.
Budget forwards: the £5m-or-less enabler
With two midfield premiums and a premium forward, most squads need one or two budget forwards around £4.5m–£5.5m. The job here is simple: play every week, don't actively harm the team, and free up maximum budget for midfield.
Research who starts regularly for mid-table or relegation-threatened clubs. A striker with 25+ league starts the previous season at £4.5m is worth the slot. Avoid squad players or rotational forwards — the budget role demands guaranteed minutes above all else.
GW1 differentials in attack
The highest-value differentials are often forwards at clubs with favourable GW1 fixtures that the market hasn't priced in yet. A striker at a newly promoted side facing another promoted team in GW1 at home, priced at £5.5m, can easily out-return a £12m premium playing away to a top-six opponent.
Use Onside's fixture difficulty tool to find forwards with the easiest GW1 fixture and less than 10% ownership. Combine that with a starting role and attacking xG numbers from last season and you have the makings of a genuine early differential.