Will Argentina win the World Cup 2026?
Argentina — 10.5% to win
Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator gives Argentina a 10.5% probability of winning the FIFA World Cup 2026. Onside's calibrated team-strength model rates Argentina(FIFA #3, CONMEBOL) against every other contender.
Probability updates hourly as group-stage results land. Share this card to X / Reddit / WhatsApp below.
FAQ · Argentina at World Cup 2026
Will Argentina win the World Cup 2026?
Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator gives Argentina a 10.5% probability of winning the FIFA World Cup 2026 — ranked #4 of 48 by champion probability. The model re-runs hourly as group-stage results land.
How far will Argentina go at the World Cup 2026?
Argentina reaches the Round of 16 84% of the time in simulation, the semi-finals 36%, and the final 18.4%. These probabilities come from Onside's calibrated team-strength model, which rates Argentina (FIFA #3, CONMEBOL) against the rest of the field.
What is Argentina's rank in the Onside model?
Argentina sits #4 of 48 by Onside model champion probability — based on Onside's calibrated team-strength model.
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