Will Canada win the World Cup 2026?
Canada — 0.3% to win
Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator gives Canada a 0.3% probability of winning the FIFA World Cup 2026. Onside's calibrated team-strength model rates Canada(FIFA #30, CONCACAF), with host-nation advantage, against every other contender.
Probability updates hourly as group-stage results land. Share this card to X / Reddit / WhatsApp below.
FAQ · Canada at World Cup 2026
Will Canada win the World Cup 2026?
Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator gives Canada a 0.3% probability of winning the FIFA World Cup 2026 — ranked #19 of 48 by champion probability. The model re-runs hourly as group-stage results land.
How far will Canada go at the World Cup 2026?
Canada reaches the Round of 16 63% of the time in simulation, the semi-finals 6%, and the final 1.3%. These probabilities come from Onside's calibrated team-strength model, which rates Canada (FIFA #30, CONCACAF) with host-nation advantage against the rest of the field.
What is Canada's rank in the Onside model?
Canada sits #19 of 48 by Onside model champion probability — based on Onside's calibrated team-strength model, including host-nation advantage.
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