Will Mexico win the World Cup 2026?
Mexico — 3.8% to win
Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator gives Mexico a 3.8% probability of winning the FIFA World Cup 2026. Onside's calibrated team-strength model rates Mexico(FIFA #15, CONCACAF), with host-nation advantage, against every other contender.
Probability updates hourly as group-stage results land. Share this card to X / Reddit / WhatsApp below.
FAQ · Mexico at World Cup 2026
Will Mexico win the World Cup 2026?
Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator gives Mexico a 3.8% probability of winning the FIFA World Cup 2026 — ranked #7 of 48 by champion probability. The model re-runs hourly as group-stage results land.
How far will Mexico go at the World Cup 2026?
Mexico reaches the Round of 16 68% of the time in simulation, the semi-finals 17%, and the final 7.7%. These probabilities come from Onside's calibrated team-strength model, which rates Mexico (FIFA #15, CONCACAF) with host-nation advantage against the rest of the field.
What is Mexico's rank in the Onside model?
Mexico sits #7 of 48 by Onside model champion probability — based on Onside's calibrated team-strength model, including host-nation advantage.
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