QUICK ANSWER

Will Senegal win the World Cup 2026?

Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator gives Senegal a 0.0% probability of winning the FIFA World Cup 2026 — currently ranked #18 of 48 by champion probability. The team reaches the Round of 16 in 33% of simulations, the semi-finals in 4%, and the final in 1.9%. These probabilities come from Onside's calibrated team-strength model (rating Senegal at FIFA #14, CAF). Probabilities refresh hourly as group-stage results land.
WILL SENEGAL WIN WORLD CUP 2026?
RANK #18 OF 48 BY MODELFIFA #14CAF

Senegal0.0% to win

Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator gives Senegal a 0.0% probability of winning the FIFA World Cup 2026. Onside's calibrated team-strength model rates Senegal(FIFA #14, CAF) against every other contender.

Probability updates hourly as group-stage results land. Share this card to X / Reddit / WhatsApp below.

SENEGAL'S TOURNAMENT PATH
R16
33%
QF
11%
SF
4%
FINAL
1.9%
CHAMPION
0.0%
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FAQ · Senegal at World Cup 2026

Will Senegal win the World Cup 2026?

Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator gives Senegal a 0.0% probability of winning the FIFA World Cup 2026 — ranked #18 of 48 by champion probability. The model re-runs hourly as group-stage results land.

How far will Senegal go at the World Cup 2026?

Senegal reaches the Round of 16 33% of the time in simulation, the semi-finals 4%, and the final 1.9%. These probabilities come from Onside's calibrated team-strength model, which rates Senegal (FIFA #14, CAF) against the rest of the field.

What is Senegal's rank in the Onside model?

Senegal sits #18 of 48 by Onside model champion probability — based on Onside's calibrated team-strength model.

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