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Belgium vs Senegal Round of 32 prediction — World Cup 2026

Onside's AI model gives Belgium at 50% to win the Round of 32 clash between Belgium and Senegal. Belgium 50% · draw 24% · Senegal 26%. Match # 82 at Lumen Field, Seattle.

ROUND OF 32 · MATCH 82

MODEL · BEL 50%SEATTLE1 Jul UTC

Belgium vs Senegal prediction

The Onside AI Monte Carlo simulator's verdict on the Belgium vs Senegal Round of 32 fixture. Probabilities refresh every 10 minutes.

BELGIUM

50%

DRAW

24%

(then ET / pens)

SENEGAL

26%

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

2.20 — 1.41

★ MODE

1–1

9.4%

2–1

9.2%

3–1

6.8%

2–0

6.5%

2–2

6.5%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

70%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

68%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

BELGIUM · PL STARS

1.Senne LammensMan Utd
2.Timothy CastagneFulham
3.Maxim De CuyperBrighton

SENEGAL · PL STARS

1.Mamadou SarrChelsea
2.El-Hadji Malick DioufWest Ham
3.Idrissa GueyeEverton

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Belgium vs Senegal World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Belgium 50%, draw 24%, and Senegal 26% in the Round of 32 — Belgium favoured. Every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Belgium vs Senegal score prediction

The model leans Belgium by a single goal; knockout fixtures compress, so expect a tight 1-0 or 2-1 rather than a blowout. Over-2.5-goals probability sits near 59%.

Belgium vs Senegal Round of 32 — when & where

Round of 32 fixture at Seattle, kickoff Wed 1 Jul, 20:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (BEL #9 vs SEN #14), confederation, and live form learned from this tournament's results.

Belgium vs Senegal line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

FAQ · Belgium vs Senegal

Who is the favourite to win Belgium vs Senegal Round of 32?

Belgium is the model's favourite at 50%. Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator combines each side's team strength and the matchup context to derive the probability.

When and where is Belgium vs Senegal?

Belgium face Senegal at Lumen Field in Seattle, kickoff Wednesday 1 July at 20:00 UTC.

What's the predicted score for Belgium vs Senegal?

The model's predicted scoreline is Belgium 2-1 Senegal (expected goals 2.2 v 1.4). Goals-over-2.5 sits around 59%. Knockout matches are typically tighter than the model implies, so in a level tie expect low-scoring margins and extra-time risk.

Where can I see the model's accuracy?

Live receipts at /world-cup-2026/model-record. Every settled prediction is graded with a Brier-style scorecard so the model's accuracy is publicly auditable.

Belgium →Senegal →Pick the score →Full bracket →