The model receipts
How accurate are Onside's World Cup 2026 predictions?
HOW TO READ THIS
For every group-stage match, the model issues a pre-match probability before kick-off. Once the result is in, we grade the call. Favourite hit-rate = % of matches where the team the model picked as favourite won outright. Brier score measures how close the predicted probabilities were to reality — lower is sharper.
We don't cherry-pick. Every prediction goes on the board the moment the match kicks off — wins, losses, ties, the lot. Methodology: onsidearena.com/world-cup-2026/methodology.
Calibration
IS THE MODEL TELLING THE TRUTH ABOUT ITS CONFIDENCE?
| MODEL SAID FAV PROB | SAMPLE N | ACTUAL FAV WIN-RATE | DEVIATION |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40-50% | 7 | 71% | +26pp |
| 50-60% | 7 | 29% | -26pp |
| 60-70% | 7 | 100% | +35pp |
| 70-80% | 14 | 86% | +11pp |
| 80%+ | 17 | 100% | +10pp |
Deviation = actual fav win-rate − bucket midpoint. Closer to zero = better calibration.
Recent results
LAST 5 GRADED · 72 TOTAL
| MATCH | RESULT | VERDICT | BRIER |
|---|---|---|---|
| Algeria vs Austria Sun 28 Jun | 3–3 | Draw | 0.86 |
| Jordan vs Argentina Sun 28 Jun | 1–3 | Favourite won | 0.01 |
| Colombia vs Portugal Sat 27 Jun | 0–0 | Draw | 0.86 |
| DR Congo vs Uzbekistan Sat 27 Jun | 3–1 | Favourite won | 0.51 |
| Panama vs England Sat 27 Jun | 0–2 | Favourite won | 0.10 |
Want to plug this into your AI?
Same data, machine-readable: /api/v1/wc/champions and /api/v1/wc/predict. Or install our MCP server so your Claude / Cursor assistant can call the model directly:
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