What is the win probability for Algeria vs Austria at the 2026 World Cup?

Onside's AI model gives Algeria 34%, draw 21%, and Austria 45% for the Group J fixture at the 2026 World Cup. Austria is the model favourite with narrow confidence.

Who is favourite to win Algeria vs Austria?

Austria is the favourite at 45% model probability vs the underdog at 34%. The Onside Prediction Markets board compares our model to the live betting market.

When do Algeria and Austria play at the World Cup 2026?

Algeria vs Austria kicks off Sunday, 28 June 2026 at 02:00 UTC in Kansas City, matchday 3 of Group J.

MODEL ACCURACY · LIVE60 of 72 called· Favourite hit-rate 83%→

QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Algeria vs Austria?

Onside's model gives Austria a 45% win probability (21% draw, Algeria 34%). We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.

MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP J · MD3

Algeria vs AustriaWin Probability & Model Prediction

Sunday, 28 June 2026 · 02:00 UTC · Kansas City

Onside's AI model gives Algeria 34%, draw 21%, and Austria 45%. Austria is the model favourite (narrow confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group J fixture on Sunday.

ALGERIA WIN

34%

DRAW

21%

AUSTRIA WIN

45%

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

1.96 — 2.25

★ MODE

1–2

7.4%

1–1

7.3%

2–2

7.2%

2–1

6.4%

1–3

5.5%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

79%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

78%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Algeria vs Austria World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Algeria 34%, draw 21%, and Austria 45% — austria favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Algeria vs Austria prediction score

Expected scoreline: 2–2 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Algeria 2, Austria 2). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

Algeria vs Austria head to head

Group J fixture at Kansas City, kickoff Sun 28 Jun, 02:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (ALG #29 vs AUT #24), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

Algeria vs Austria line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

MODEL SAID · HERE'S WHAT HAPPENED

DRAW · MODEL FAVOURITE DIDN'T WIN

PRE-MATCH MODEL

ALG 34% / D 21% / AUT 45%

FINAL SCORE

3–3

Model favoured Austria — they couldn't separate. Draws count against favourite-wins-only accuracy.

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MODEL RATIONALE

Region pedigree separates them

Austria (UEFA) and Algeria (CAF) have similar FIFA ranks, but recent World Cups have been tougher for sides outside the European and South American confederations to beat top-band opposition in knockout matches. Austria sit at 45%, Algeria at 34%.

HOW THE MODEL WORKS →

MATCH CONTEXT