Win probability for every WC 2026 match
Every group-stage fixture, modelled by Onside's calibrated AI prediction model. Each bar shows the probability split between home win, draw and away win.
Three sections below: match predictions, model recommendations (upsets, top picks, fixture-by-fixture), and fantasy intel for FIFA WC Fantasy managers.
Source: Onside's prediction model. Replaces with real engine output once pre-season ratings ship. All probabilities sum to 100%. Accuracy refreshes as each match completes — favourite-wins-only.
The Onside model has a tightly packed leading group — its top contenders are separated by barely a percentage point, with no team above ~13%. The biggest predicted upset is Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Qatar (58% upset probability). Probabilities refresh hourly as new information and live results land.
What the model says about Matchday 1
The five group-stage matches the model says could surprise
Underdog combined win-or-draw probability ≥ 38%. Either side could win or share — the favourite is far from comfortable.
Day-by-day probabilities
Filter by group, confederation or matchday — or search a team name to jump to its three group fixtures. Click any team name to open its full nation page.
Slice the 72 fixtures
No fixtures match your filters.
Which confederation does the model trust most?
Per-confederation aggregate model strength (avg rank-normalised) and how often the model favours one of its teams across the 72 group fixtures. Once matches play, the hit-rate column tracks the model's favourite-correct calls live.
Strength = avg of each team's rank-normalised score. "Favoured in" = number of group fixtures where the model picks a team from this confederation. Hit rate updates as results land.
Onside World Cup 2026 predictions — common questions
Answers to the most-asked questions about the model. Schema-marked so Google can surface them as a rich result.
How accurate are the Onside World Cup 2026 predictions?›
Pre-tournament we target 60-70% favourite-correct on group fixtures, which matches historical favourite-win rates at recent World Cups. Once matches start playing, the in-page "Model accuracy" chip shows the live running score so you can verify the claim. The model is calibrated for the long run — variance on any single match is high.
Which team is predicted to win World Cup 2026?›
Per the latest run of our 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo simulator, the leading contenders are separated by barely a percentage point — no team is above ~13%. The board updates hourly as live results lock in. See /world-cup-2026/winner for the current live order and /world-cup-2026/simulator for the full top-24 round-by-round breakdown.
How does the prediction model work?›
Each match probability is the output of Onside's proprietary team-strength model, calibrated against historical international results. We then run the tournament forward 10,000 times (Monte Carlo) to turn those match probabilities into tournament outcomes, with completed matches locking in as they're played. Full methodology at /world-cup-2026/methodology.
What is the biggest predicted upset at World Cup 2026?›
The model flags several group-stage matches with underdog-combined-win-or-draw probability above 55%, including Bosnia vs Qatar, DR Congo vs Uzbekistan, and Brazil vs Morocco. Full ranked list at /world-cup-2026/upsets.
How often do predictions update?›
Predictions refresh hourly via ISR caching. The underlying model re-rates teams as new information lands — and once the tournament starts, every completed result locks in as a prior, so the simulator naturally sharpens as matches are played.
Can I share or embed these predictions?›
Yes — every per-fixture page generates a 1200x630 Satori share card via the /opengraph-image route. Hit any matchup page on X and the preview is auto-included. For citations, link to onsidearena.com/world-cup-2026/methodology so readers can see how the figure was derived.
Use these predictions for your FIFA WC Fantasy team
Onside's probability model feeds directly into our matchday captain shortlist, differentials, and value board for the official FIFA World Cup Fantasy game. Picks include Mbappé, Vinicius, Messi, Modrić — not just Premier League names.
Approach
- · Calibrated team strength. Each fixture is scored by Onside's proprietary team-strength model, calibrated against the long-run historical baseline for international football.
- · Probability, not punditry. The output is a win / draw / loss probability for every fixture — draw rates hew to the historical group-stage baseline rather than the consensus narrative.
- · Stable under live results. Completed matches lock in as certainties and propagate through the model, so the board sharpens naturally as the tournament plays out.
- · Transparently graded. We publish every prediction and grade each one live on the Model Record. The internal weighting is proprietary; the outputs are not.
Probabilities refresh hourly as new information and live results land. Full write-up at /world-cup-2026/methodology.
The picks the model rates highest every matchday
- Highest-edge match, captain pick, scoreline call — emailed once
- Public receipts: we publish before the match, grade after
- One email per matchday. Unsubscribe anytime.
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Match-by-match predictions, captain picks for World Cup Fantasy, likely scorers, and the first FPL 2026/27 differentials to watch. Same engine that powers our Premier League tools, pointed at the world's biggest pre-season.
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