QUICK ANSWER

Who will win DR Congo vs Uzbekistan?

Onside's model gives DR Congo a 72% win probability (18% draw, Uzbekistan 10%). We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.
MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP K · MD3

DR Congo vs UzbekistanWin Probability & Model Prediction

Saturday, 27 June 2026 · 23:30 UTC · Atlanta

Onside's AI model gives DR Congo 72%, draw 18%, and Uzbekistan 10%. DR Congo is the model favourite (strong confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group K fixture on Saturday.

DR CONGO WIN
72%
DRAW
18%
UZBEKISTAN WIN
10%
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
2.570.93
★ MODE
20
10.0%
21
9.3%
30
8.6%
11
8.1%
31
8.0%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
68%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
57%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

DR Congo vs Uzbekistan World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives DR Congo 72%, draw 18%, and Uzbekistan 10% — dr congo favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

DR Congo vs Uzbekistan prediction score

Expected scoreline: 31 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (DR Congo 3, Uzbekistan 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

DR Congo vs Uzbekistan head to head

Group K fixture at Atlanta, kickoff Sat 27 Jun, 23:30 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (COD #46 vs UZB #50), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

DR Congo vs Uzbekistan line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

MODEL SAID · HERE'S WHAT HAPPENED
MODEL CORRECT
PRE-MATCH MODEL
COD 72% / D 18% / UZB 10%
FINAL SCORE
31

Model picked DR Congo at 72% — they took the result. Adds to the running accuracy score.

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MODEL RATIONALE

Narrow edge to the favourite

DR Congo (#46) edge Uzbekistan (#50) on a combination of ranking and squad depth. 72% to Uzbekistan's 10%, with 18% on the draw — a strong-confidence call, not a foregone conclusion.

MATCH CONTEXT

How the teams compare

WORLD RANKING
DR Congo
#46
Uzbekistan
#50
PREMIER LEAGUE PRESENCE
DR Congo
2
Uzbekistan
1
HOME SOIL
DR Congo
Uzbekistan
REGION
DR Congo
CAF
Uzbekistan
AFC
PREMIER LEAGUE THREAD

The PL names in each squad

DR Congo2 PL
  • Yoane WissaNewcastle
  • Aaron Wan-BissakaWest Ham
Uzbekistan1 PL
  • Abdukodir KhusanovMan City
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