QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Egypt vs Iran?

Onside's model gives Egypt a 42% win probability (30% draw, Iran 28%). We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.
MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP G · MD3

Egypt vs IranWin Probability & Model Prediction

Saturday, 27 June 2026 · 03:00 UTC · Seattle

Onside's AI model gives Egypt 42%, draw 30%, and Iran 28%. Egypt is the model favourite (narrow confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group G fixture on Saturday.

EGYPT WIN
42%
DRAW
30%
IRAN WIN
28%
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.381.10
★ MODE
11
14.2%
10
10.1%
00
9.9%
21
8.8%
20
8.0%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
45%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
51%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Egypt vs Iran World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Egypt 42%, draw 30%, and Iran 28% — egypt favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Egypt vs Iran prediction score

Expected scoreline: 11 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Egypt 1, Iran 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

Egypt vs Iran head to head

Group G fixture at Seattle, kickoff Sat 27 Jun, 03:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (EGY #28 vs IRN #21), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

Egypt vs Iran line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

MODEL SAID · HERE'S WHAT HAPPENED
DRAW · MODEL FAVOURITE DIDN'T WIN
PRE-MATCH MODEL
EGY 42% / D 30% / IRN 28%
FINAL SCORE
11

Model favoured Egypt — they couldn't separate. Draws count against favourite-wins-only accuracy.

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MODEL RATIONALE

Narrow edge to the favourite

Egypt (#28) edge Iran (#21) on a combination of ranking and squad depth. 42% to Iran's 28%, with 30% on the draw — a narrow-confidence call, not a foregone conclusion.

MATCH CONTEXT

How the teams compare

WORLD RANKING
Egypt
#28
Iran
#21
PREMIER LEAGUE PRESENCE
Egypt
2
Iran
0
HOME SOIL
Egypt
Iran
REGION
Egypt
CAF
Iran
AFC
PREMIER LEAGUE THREAD

The PL names in each squad

Egypt2 PL
  • Omar MarmoushMan City
  • Mohamed SalahLiverpool
Iran0 PL
No current Premier League names in this squad.
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