QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Qatar?

Onside's model gives Bosnia & Herzegovina a 64% win probability (19% draw, Qatar 17%). We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.
MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP B · MD3

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs QatarWin Probability & Model Prediction

Wednesday, 24 June 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Seattle

Onside's AI model gives Bosnia & Herzegovina 64%, draw 19%, and Qatar 17%. Bosnia & Herzegovina is the model favourite (moderate confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group B fixture on Wednesday.

BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA WIN
64%
DRAW
19%
QATAR WIN
17%
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
2.611.33
★ MODE
21
8.8%
31
7.7%
11
7.6%
20
6.7%
22
5.9%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
75%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
69%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Qatar World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Bosnia & Herzegovina 64%, draw 19%, and Qatar 17% — bosnia & herzegovina favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Qatar prediction score

Expected scoreline: 31 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Bosnia & Herzegovina 3, Qatar 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Qatar head to head

Group B fixture at Seattle, kickoff Wed 24 Jun, 19:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (BIH #65 vs QAT #55), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Qatar line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

MODEL SAID · HERE'S WHAT HAPPENED
MODEL CORRECT
PRE-MATCH MODEL
BIH 64% / D 19% / QAT 17%
FINAL SCORE
31

Model picked Bosnia & Herzegovina at 64% — they took the result. Adds to the running accuracy score.

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MODEL RATIONALE

Region pedigree separates them

Bosnia & Herzegovina (UEFA) and Qatar (AFC) have similar FIFA ranks, but recent World Cups have been tougher for sides outside the European and South American confederations to beat top-band opposition in knockout matches. Bosnia & Herzegovina sit at 64%, Qatar at 17%.

MATCH CONTEXT

How the teams compare

WORLD RANKING
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#65
Qatar
#55
PREMIER LEAGUE PRESENCE
Bosnia & Herzegovina
0
Qatar
0
HOME SOIL
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Qatar
REGION
Bosnia & Herzegovina
UEFA
Qatar
AFC
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