QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Jordan vs Argentina?

Onside's model gives Argentina a 51% win probability (27% draw, Jordan 22%). We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.
MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP J · MD3

Jordan vs ArgentinaWin Probability & Model Prediction

Sunday, 28 June 2026 · 02:00 UTC · Arlington

Onside's AI model gives Jordan 22%, draw 27%, and Argentina 51%. Argentina is the model favourite (moderate confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group J fixture on Sunday.

JORDAN WIN
22%
DRAW
27%
ARGENTINA WIN
51%
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.081.72
★ MODE
11
12.6%
12
9.7%
01
9.1%
02
9.0%
00
7.4%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
53%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
56%

Pre-tournament prior model — posterior updates as the group stage plays. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Jordan vs Argentina World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Jordan 22%, draw 27%, and Argentina 51% — argentina favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Jordan vs Argentina prediction score

Expected scoreline: 12 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Jordan 1, Argentina 2). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

Jordan vs Argentina head to head

Group J fixture at Arlington, kickoff Sun 28 Jun, 02:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (JOR #63 vs ARG #3), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

Jordan vs Argentina line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

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FAV ARG · MODERATE CONFIDENCE
MODEL RATIONALE

Ranking gap is the story

Argentina sit 60 places above Jordan in the FIFA ranking (#3 vs #63) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Argentina comes out at 51%, Jordan at 22%, with the rest on the draw. Treated as a moderate call rather than a foregone conclusion.

MATCH CONTEXT

How the teams compare

WORLD RANKING
Jordan
#63
Argentina
#3
PREMIER LEAGUE PRESENCE
Jordan
0
Argentina
5
HOME SOIL
Jordan
Argentina
REGION
Jordan
AFC
Argentina
CONMEBOL
PREMIER LEAGUE THREAD

The PL names in each squad

Jordan0 PL
No current Premier League names in this squad.
Argentina5 PL
  • Emiliano MartínezAston Villa
  • Lisandro MartínezMan Utd
  • Cristian RomeroSpurs
  • Enzo FernándezChelsea
  • Alexis Mac AllisterLiverpool
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Jordan vs Argentina Score Prediction & Win Probability — World Cup 2026 · Onside