What is the win probability for Colombia vs Portugal at the 2026 World Cup?

Onside's AI model gives Colombia 28%, draw 35%, and Portugal 37% for the Group K fixture at the 2026 World Cup. Portugal is the model favourite with level confidence.

Who is favourite to win Colombia vs Portugal?

Portugal is the favourite at 37% model probability vs the underdog at 28%. The Onside Prediction Markets board compares our model to the live betting market.

When do Colombia and Portugal play at the World Cup 2026?

Colombia vs Portugal kicks off Saturday, 27 June 2026 at 23:30 UTC in Miami Gardens, matchday 3 of Group K.

MODEL ACCURACY · LIVE60 of 72 called· Favourite hit-rate 83%→

QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Colombia vs Portugal?

Onside's model gives Portugal a 37% win probability (35% draw, Colombia 28%). We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.

MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP K · MD3

Colombia vs PortugalWin Probability & Model Prediction

Saturday, 27 June 2026 · 23:30 UTC · Miami Gardens

Onside's AI model gives Colombia 28%, draw 35%, and Portugal 37%. Portugal is the model favourite (level confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group K fixture on Saturday.

COLOMBIA WIN

28%

DRAW

35%

PORTUGAL WIN

37%

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

0.83 — 0.99

★ MODE

0–0

17.7%

1–1

14.9%

0–1

14.4%

1–0

11.8%

0–2

7.9%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

28%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

37%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Colombia vs Portugal World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Colombia 28%, draw 35%, and Portugal 37% — portugal favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Colombia vs Portugal prediction score

Expected scoreline: 1–1 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Colombia 1, Portugal 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

Colombia vs Portugal head to head

Group K fixture at Miami Gardens, kickoff Sat 27 Jun, 23:30 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (COL #13 vs POR #5), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

Colombia vs Portugal line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

MODEL SAID · HERE'S WHAT HAPPENED

DRAW · MODEL FAVOURITE DIDN'T WIN

PRE-MATCH MODEL

COL 28% / D 35% / POR 37%

FINAL SCORE

0–0

Model favoured Portugal — they couldn't separate. Draws count against favourite-wins-only accuracy.

TRACK THIS

SHAREX Reddit WhatsApp

FAV POR · LEVEL CONFIDENCEUPSET WATCH

MODEL RATIONALE

Ranking gap is the story

Portugal sit 8 places above Colombia in the FIFA ranking (#5 vs #13) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Portugal comes out at 37%, Colombia at 28%, with the rest on the draw. Combined upset-or-draw chance keeps this one flagged as Upset Watch.

HOW THE MODEL WORKS →

MATCH CONTEXT