Will Japan win the World Cup 2026?
Japan — 0.0% to win
Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator gives Japan a 0.0% probability of winning the FIFA World Cup 2026. Onside's calibrated team-strength model rates Japan(FIFA #18, AFC) against every other contender.
Probability updates hourly as group-stage results land. Share this card to X / Reddit / WhatsApp below.
FAQ · Japan at World Cup 2026
Will Japan win the World Cup 2026?
Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator gives Japan a 0.0% probability of winning the FIFA World Cup 2026 — ranked #18 of 48 by champion probability. The model re-runs hourly as group-stage results land.
How far will Japan go at the World Cup 2026?
Japan reaches the Round of 16 32% of the time in simulation, the semi-finals 5%, and the final 1.4%. These probabilities come from Onside's calibrated team-strength model, which rates Japan (FIFA #18, AFC) against the rest of the field.
What is Japan's rank in the Onside model?
Japan sits #18 of 48 by Onside model champion probability — based on Onside's calibrated team-strength model.
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