Will Norway win the World Cup 2026?
Norway — 0.1% to win
Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator gives Norway a 0.1% probability of winning the FIFA World Cup 2026. Onside's calibrated team-strength model rates Norway(FIFA #31, UEFA) against every other contender.
Probability updates hourly as group-stage results land. Share this card to X / Reddit / WhatsApp below.
FAQ · Norway at World Cup 2026
Will Norway win the World Cup 2026?
Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator gives Norway a 0.1% probability of winning the FIFA World Cup 2026 — ranked #11 of 48 by champion probability. The model re-runs hourly as group-stage results land.
How far will Norway go at the World Cup 2026?
Norway reaches the Round of 16 12% of the time in simulation, the semi-finals 1%, and the final 0.2%. These probabilities come from Onside's calibrated team-strength model, which rates Norway (FIFA #31, UEFA) against the rest of the field.
What is Norway's rank in the Onside model?
Norway sits #11 of 48 by Onside model champion probability — based on Onside's calibrated team-strength model.
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