Will United States win the World Cup 2026?
United States — 2.5% to win
Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator gives United States a 2.5% probability of winning the FIFA World Cup 2026. Onside's calibrated team-strength model rates United States(FIFA #16, CONCACAF), with host-nation advantage, against every other contender.
Probability updates hourly as group-stage results land. Share this card to X / Reddit / WhatsApp below.
FAQ · United States at World Cup 2026
Will United States win the World Cup 2026?
Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator gives United States a 2.5% probability of winning the FIFA World Cup 2026 — ranked #8 of 48 by champion probability. The model re-runs hourly as group-stage results land.
How far will United States go at the World Cup 2026?
United States reaches the Round of 16 89% of the time in simulation, the semi-finals 14%, and the final 5.8%. These probabilities come from Onside's calibrated team-strength model, which rates United States (FIFA #16, CONCACAF) with host-nation advantage against the rest of the field.
What is United States's rank in the Onside model?
United States sits #8 of 48 by Onside model champion probability — based on Onside's calibrated team-strength model, including host-nation advantage.
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