QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Argentina vs Austria?

Onside's model gives Argentina a 43% win probability (29% draw, Austria 28%). We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.
MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP J · MD2

Argentina vs AustriaWin Probability & Model Prediction

Monday, 22 June 2026 · 17:00 UTC · Arlington

Onside's AI model gives Argentina 43%, draw 29%, and Austria 28%. Argentina is the model favourite (narrow confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group J fixture on Monday.

ARGENTINA WIN
43%
DRAW
29%
AUSTRIA WIN
28%
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.521.19
★ MODE
11
13.5%
21
9.1%
10
8.6%
00
8.1%
20
7.7%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
51%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
56%

Pre-tournament prior model — posterior updates as the group stage plays. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Argentina vs Austria World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Argentina 43%, draw 29%, and Austria 28% — argentina favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Argentina vs Austria prediction score

Expected scoreline: 21 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Argentina 2, Austria 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

Argentina vs Austria head to head

Group J fixture at Arlington, kickoff Mon 22 Jun, 17:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (ARG #3 vs AUT #24), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

Argentina vs Austria line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

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FAV ARG · NARROW CONFIDENCEUPSET WATCH
MODEL RATIONALE

Ranking gap is the story

Argentina sit 21 places above Austria in the FIFA ranking (#3 vs #24) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Argentina comes out at 43%, Austria at 28%, with the rest on the draw. Combined upset-or-draw chance keeps this one flagged as Upset Watch.

MATCH CONTEXT

How the teams compare

WORLD RANKING
Argentina
#3
Austria
#24
PREMIER LEAGUE PRESENCE
Argentina
5
Austria
0
HOME SOIL
Argentina
Austria
REGION
Argentina
CONMEBOL
Austria
UEFA
PREMIER LEAGUE THREAD

The PL names in each squad

Argentina5 PL
  • Emiliano MartínezAston Villa
  • Lisandro MartínezMan Utd
  • Cristian RomeroSpurs
  • Enzo FernándezChelsea
  • Alexis Mac AllisterLiverpool
Austria0 PL
No current Premier League names in this squad.
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Argentina vs Austria Score Prediction & Win Probability — World Cup 2026 · Onside