QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Australia vs Türkiye?

Onside's model gives Australia a 43% win probability (31% draw, Türkiye 26%). We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.
MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP D · MD1

Australia vs TürkiyeWin Probability & Model Prediction

Sunday, 14 June 2026 · 04:00 UTC · Vancouver

Onside's AI model gives Australia 43%, draw 31%, and Türkiye 26%. Australia is the model favourite (narrow confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group D fixture on Sunday.

AUSTRALIA WIN
43%
DRAW
31%
TÜRKIYE WIN
26%
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.270.93
★ MODE
11
14.6%
00
12.6%
10
12.5%
20
8.9%
01
8.7%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
38%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
45%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Australia vs Türkiye World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Australia 43%, draw 31%, and Türkiye 26% — australia favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Australia vs Türkiye prediction score

Expected scoreline: 11 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Australia 1, Türkiye 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

Australia vs Türkiye head to head

Group D fixture at Vancouver, kickoff Sun 14 Jun, 04:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (AUS #27 vs TUR #22), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

Australia vs Türkiye line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

MODEL SAID · HERE'S WHAT HAPPENED
MODEL CORRECT
PRE-MATCH MODEL
AUS 43% / D 31% / TUR 26%
FINAL SCORE
20

Model picked Australia at 43% — they took the result. Adds to the running accuracy score.

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MODEL RATIONALE

Narrow edge to the favourite

Australia (#27) edge Türkiye (#22) on a combination of ranking and squad depth. 43% to Türkiye's 26%, with 31% on the draw — a narrow-confidence call, not a foregone conclusion.

MATCH CONTEXT

How the teams compare

WORLD RANKING
Australia
#27
Türkiye
#22
PREMIER LEAGUE PRESENCE
Australia
0
Türkiye
1
HOME SOIL
Australia
Türkiye
REGION
Australia
AFC
Türkiye
UEFA
PREMIER LEAGUE THREAD

The PL names in each squad

Australia0 PL
No current Premier League names in this squad.
Türkiye1 PL
  • Altay BayındırMan Utd
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