What is the win probability for Belgium vs Egypt at the 2026 World Cup?

Onside's AI model gives Belgium 48%, draw 28%, and Egypt 24% for the Group G fixture at the 2026 World Cup. Belgium is the model favourite with narrow confidence.

Who is favourite to win Belgium vs Egypt?

Belgium is the favourite at 48% model probability vs the underdog at 24%. The Onside Prediction Markets board compares our model to the live betting market.

When do Belgium and Egypt play at the World Cup 2026?

Belgium vs Egypt kicks off Monday, 15 June 2026 at 19:00 UTC in Seattle, matchday 1 of Group G.

MODEL ACCURACY · LIVE60 of 72 called· Favourite hit-rate 83%→

QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Belgium vs Egypt?

Onside's model gives Belgium a 48% win probability (28% draw, Egypt 24%). We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.

MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP G · MD1

Belgium vs EgyptWin Probability & Model Prediction

Monday, 15 June 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Seattle

Onside's AI model gives Belgium 48%, draw 28%, and Egypt 24%. Belgium is the model favourite (narrow confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group G fixture on Monday.

BELGIUM WIN

48%

DRAW

28%

EGYPT WIN

24%

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

1.59 — 1.08

★ MODE

1–1

13.3%

1–0

9.6%

2–1

9.4%

2–0

8.8%

0–0

8.4%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

50%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

54%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Belgium vs Egypt World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Belgium 48%, draw 28%, and Egypt 24% — belgium favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Belgium vs Egypt prediction score

Expected scoreline: 2–1 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Belgium 2, Egypt 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

Belgium vs Egypt head to head

Group G fixture at Seattle, kickoff Mon 15 Jun, 19:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (BEL #9 vs EGY #28), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

Belgium vs Egypt line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

MODEL SAID · HERE'S WHAT HAPPENED

DRAW · MODEL FAVOURITE DIDN'T WIN

PRE-MATCH MODEL

BEL 48% / D 28% / EGY 24%

FINAL SCORE

1–1

Model favoured Belgium — they couldn't separate. Draws count against favourite-wins-only accuracy.

TRACK THIS

SHAREX Reddit WhatsApp

FAV BEL · NARROW CONFIDENCEUPSET WATCH

MODEL RATIONALE

Ranking gap is the story

Belgium sit 19 places above Egypt in the FIFA ranking (#9 vs #28) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Belgium comes out at 48%, Egypt at 24%, with the rest on the draw. Combined upset-or-draw chance keeps this one flagged as Upset Watch.

HOW THE MODEL WORKS →

MATCH CONTEXT