What is the win probability for Belgium vs Iran at the 2026 World Cup?

Onside's AI model gives Belgium 52%, draw 28%, and Iran 20% for the Group G fixture at the 2026 World Cup. Belgium is the model favourite with moderate confidence.

Who is favourite to win Belgium vs Iran?

Belgium is the favourite at 52% model probability vs the underdog at 20%. The Onside Prediction Markets board compares our model to the live betting market.

When do Belgium and Iran play at the World Cup 2026?

Belgium vs Iran kicks off Sunday, 21 June 2026 at 19:00 UTC in Inglewood, matchday 2 of Group G.

MODEL ACCURACY · LIVE60 of 72 called· Favourite hit-rate 83%→

QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Belgium vs Iran?

Onside's model gives Belgium a 52% win probability (28% draw, Iran 20%). We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.

MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP G · MD2

Belgium vs IranWin Probability & Model Prediction

Sunday, 21 June 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Inglewood

Onside's AI model gives Belgium 52%, draw 28%, and Iran 20%. Belgium is the model favourite (moderate confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group G fixture on Sunday.

BELGIUM WIN

52%

DRAW

28%

IRAN WIN

20%

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

1.56 — 0.89

★ MODE

1–1

13.4%

1–0

12.1%

2–0

10.5%

0–0

10.1%

2–1

9.3%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

44%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

48%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Belgium vs Iran World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Belgium 52%, draw 28%, and Iran 20% — belgium favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Belgium vs Iran prediction score

Expected scoreline: 2–1 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Belgium 2, Iran 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

Belgium vs Iran head to head

Group G fixture at Inglewood, kickoff Sun 21 Jun, 19:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (BEL #9 vs IRN #21), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

Belgium vs Iran line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

MODEL SAID · HERE'S WHAT HAPPENED

DRAW · MODEL FAVOURITE DIDN'T WIN

PRE-MATCH MODEL

BEL 52% / D 28% / IRN 20%

FINAL SCORE

0–0

Model favoured Belgium — they couldn't separate. Draws count against favourite-wins-only accuracy.

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FAV BEL · MODERATE CONFIDENCEUPSET WATCH

MODEL RATIONALE

Ranking gap is the story

Belgium sit 12 places above Iran in the FIFA ranking (#9 vs #21) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Belgium comes out at 52%, Iran at 20%, with the rest on the draw. Combined upset-or-draw chance keeps this one flagged as Upset Watch.

HOW THE MODEL WORKS →

MATCH CONTEXT