QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Croatia vs Ghana?

Onside's model gives Croatia a 55% win probability (25% draw, Ghana 20%). We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.
MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP L · MD3

Croatia vs GhanaWin Probability & Model Prediction

Saturday, 27 June 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Philadelphia

Onside's AI model gives Croatia 55%, draw 25%, and Ghana 20%. Croatia is the model favourite (moderate confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group L fixture on Saturday.

CROATIA WIN
55%
DRAW
25%
GHANA WIN
20%
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.871.05
★ MODE
11
11.9%
21
9.9%
20
9.5%
10
8.9%
00
6.7%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
56%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
56%

Pre-tournament prior model — posterior updates as the group stage plays. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Croatia vs Ghana World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Croatia 55%, draw 25%, and Ghana 20% — croatia favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Croatia vs Ghana prediction score

Expected scoreline: 21 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Croatia 2, Ghana 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

Croatia vs Ghana head to head

Group L fixture at Philadelphia, kickoff Sat 27 Jun, 21:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (CRO #11 vs GHA #74), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

Croatia vs Ghana line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

TRACK THIS
SHAREXRedditWhatsApp
FAV CRO · MODERATE CONFIDENCE
MODEL RATIONALE

Ranking gap is the story

Croatia sit 63 places above Ghana in the FIFA ranking (#11 vs #74) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Croatia comes out at 55%, Ghana at 20%, with the rest on the draw. Treated as a moderate call rather than a foregone conclusion.

MATCH CONTEXT

How the teams compare

WORLD RANKING
Croatia
#11
Ghana
#74
PREMIER LEAGUE PRESENCE
Croatia
3
Ghana
1
HOME SOIL
Croatia
Ghana
REGION
Croatia
UEFA
Ghana
CAF
PREMIER LEAGUE THREAD

The PL names in each squad

Croatia3 PL
  • Joško GvardiolMan City
  • Luka VuškovićSpurs
  • Mateo KovačićMan City
Ghana1 PL
  • Antoine SemenyoMan City
ONSIDE PREDICTION GAME · FREE TO PLAY

Win 12 months of premium predictions FREE by picking match scores

5 right
1 month
free
10 right
3 months
free
Perfect bracket
12 months
free

Pick scorelines for upcoming fixtures. Every correct call moves you up the ladder. No payment, no card. Just predictions.

Start picking →
Croatia full team page →Ghana full team page →Compare radar →All predictions →
WC MATCHDAY BRIEF · ONE LIST, TWO SEASONS

Get the World Cup brief in your inbox — plus early FPL 2026/27 picks

Match-by-match predictions, captain picks for World Cup Fantasy, likely scorers, and the first FPL 2026/27 differentials to watch. Same engine that powers our Premier League tools, pointed at the world's biggest pre-season.

Weekly digest

Captain picks, transfer tips & differentials — every week.

One email per gameweek. Unsubscribe any time.

SAME ENGINE · POINTED AT FPL

Tracking the World Cup? Use the same engine for FPL 2026/27.

v5 depth-2 GBT stacker · 51k+ OOS predictions · MAE 0.86. Captain picks, MILP squad optimiser, AI Coach, set-piece intel — the production Premier League tools.

Croatia vs Ghana Score Prediction & Win Probability — World Cup 2026 · Onside