QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Curaçao vs Ivory Coast?

Onside's model gives Ivory Coast a 74% win probability (18% draw, Curaçao 8%). We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.
MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP E · MD3

Curaçao vs Ivory CoastWin Probability & Model Prediction

Thursday, 25 June 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Philadelphia

Onside's AI model gives Curaçao 8%, draw 18%, and Ivory Coast 74%. Ivory Coast is the model favourite (strong confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group E fixture on Thursday.

CURAÇAO WIN
8%
DRAW
18%
IVORY COAST WIN
74%
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
0.642.30
★ MODE
02
13.9%
01
11.1%
03
10.7%
12
9.0%
11
8.7%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
57%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
44%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Curaçao vs Ivory Coast World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Curaçao 8%, draw 18%, and Ivory Coast 74% — ivory coast favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Curaçao vs Ivory Coast prediction score

Expected scoreline: 12 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Curaçao 1, Ivory Coast 2). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

Curaçao vs Ivory Coast head to head

Group E fixture at Philadelphia, kickoff Thu 25 Jun, 20:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (CUW #82 vs CIV #34), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

Curaçao vs Ivory Coast line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

MODEL SAID · HERE'S WHAT HAPPENED
MODEL CORRECT
PRE-MATCH MODEL
CUW 8% / D 18% / CIV 74%
FINAL SCORE
02

Model picked Ivory Coast at 74% — they took the result. Adds to the running accuracy score.

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FAV CIV · STRONG CONFIDENCE
MODEL RATIONALE

Ranking gap is the story

Ivory Coast sit 48 places above Curaçao in the FIFA ranking (#34 vs #82) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Ivory Coast comes out at 74%, Curaçao at 8%, with the rest on the draw. Treated as a strong call rather than a foregone conclusion.

MATCH CONTEXT

How the teams compare

WORLD RANKING
Curaçao
#82
Ivory Coast
#34
PREMIER LEAGUE PRESENCE
Curaçao
0
Ivory Coast
4
HOME SOIL
Curaçao
Ivory Coast
REGION
Curaçao
CONCACAF
Ivory Coast
CAF
PREMIER LEAGUE THREAD

The PL names in each squad

Curaçao0 PL
No current Premier League names in this squad.
Ivory Coast4 PL
  • Ibrahim SangaréNott'm Forest
  • Simon AdingraSunderland
  • Amad DialloMan Utd
  • Evann GuessandCrystal Palace
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