What is the win probability for France vs Iraq at the 2026 World Cup?

Onside's AI model gives France 96%, draw 3%, and Iraq 1% for the Group I fixture at the 2026 World Cup. France is the model favourite with strong confidence.

Who is favourite to win France vs Iraq?

France is the favourite at 96% model probability vs the underdog at 1%. The Onside Prediction Markets board compares our model to the live betting market.

When do France and Iraq play at the World Cup 2026?

France vs Iraq kicks off Monday, 22 June 2026 at 21:00 UTC in Philadelphia, matchday 2 of Group I.

MODEL ACCURACY · LIVE60 of 72 called· Favourite hit-rate 83%→

QUICK ANSWER

Who will win France vs Iraq?

Onside's model gives France a 96% win probability (3% draw, Iraq 1%). We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.

MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP I · MD2

France vs IraqWin Probability & Model Prediction

Monday, 22 June 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Philadelphia

Onside's AI model gives France 96%, draw 3%, and Iraq 1%. France is the model favourite (strong confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group I fixture on Monday.

FRANCE WIN

96%

DRAW

IRAQ WIN

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

4.84 — 0.59

★ MODE

4–0

10.6%

5–0

10.3%

3–0

8.8%

6–0

8.3%

4–1

6.3%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

90%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

44%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

France vs Iraq World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives France 96%, draw 3%, and Iraq 1% — france favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

France vs Iraq prediction score

Expected scoreline: 5–1 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (France 5, Iraq 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

France vs Iraq head to head

Group I fixture at Philadelphia, kickoff Mon 22 Jun, 21:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (FRA #1 vs IRQ #57), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

France vs Iraq line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

MODEL SAID · HERE'S WHAT HAPPENED

MODEL CORRECT

PRE-MATCH MODEL

FRA 96% / D 3% / IRQ 1%

FINAL SCORE

3–0

Model picked France at 96% — they took the result. Adds to the running accuracy score.

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FAV FRA · STRONG CONFIDENCE

MODEL RATIONALE

Ranking gap is the story

France sit 56 places above Iraq in the FIFA ranking (#1 vs #57) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. France comes out at 96%, Iraq at 1%, with the rest on the draw. Treated as a strong call rather than a foregone conclusion.

HOW THE MODEL WORKS →

MATCH CONTEXT