What is the win probability for Haiti vs Scotland at the 2026 World Cup?

Onside's AI model gives Haiti 26%, draw 30%, and Scotland 44% for the Group C fixture at the 2026 World Cup. Scotland is the model favourite with narrow confidence.

Who is favourite to win Haiti vs Scotland?

Scotland is the favourite at 44% model probability vs the underdog at 26%. The Onside Prediction Markets board compares our model to the live betting market.

When do Haiti and Scotland play at the World Cup 2026?

Haiti vs Scotland kicks off Sunday, 14 June 2026 at 01:00 UTC in Foxborough, matchday 1 of Group C.

MODEL ACCURACY · LIVE60 of 72 called· Favourite hit-rate 83%→

QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Haiti vs Scotland?

Onside's model gives Scotland a 44% win probability (30% draw, Haiti 26%). We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.

MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP C · MD1

Haiti vs ScotlandWin Probability & Model Prediction

Sunday, 14 June 2026 · 01:00 UTC · Foxborough

Onside's AI model gives Haiti 26%, draw 30%, and Scotland 44%. Scotland is the model favourite (narrow confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group C fixture on Sunday.

HAITI WIN

26%

DRAW

30%

SCOTLAND WIN

44%

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

1.03 — 1.42

★ MODE

1–1

14.1%

0–1

10.7%

0–0

10.1%

1–2

9.0%

0–2

8.7%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

45%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

50%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Haiti vs Scotland World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Haiti 26%, draw 30%, and Scotland 44% — scotland favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Haiti vs Scotland prediction score

Expected scoreline: 1–1 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Haiti 1, Scotland 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

Haiti vs Scotland head to head

Group C fixture at Foxborough, kickoff Sun 14 Jun, 01:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (HAI #83 vs SCO #43), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

Haiti vs Scotland line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

MODEL SAID · HERE'S WHAT HAPPENED

MODEL CORRECT

PRE-MATCH MODEL

HAI 26% / D 30% / SCO 44%

FINAL SCORE

0–1

Model picked Scotland at 44% — they took the result. Adds to the running accuracy score.

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FAV SCO · NARROW CONFIDENCE

MODEL RATIONALE

Ranking gap is the story

Scotland sit 40 places above Haiti in the FIFA ranking (#43 vs #83) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Scotland comes out at 44%, Haiti at 26%, with the rest on the draw. Treated as a narrow call rather than a foregone conclusion.

HOW THE MODEL WORKS →

MATCH CONTEXT