Who will win Iran vs New Zealand?
Iran vs New ZealandWin Probability & Model Prediction
Onside's AI model gives Iran 66%, draw 20%, and New Zealand 14%. Iran is the model favourite (strong confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group G fixture on Tuesday.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Iran vs New Zealand World Cup 2026 prediction
Onside's model gives Iran 66%, draw 20%, and New Zealand 14% — iran favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.
Iran vs New Zealand prediction score
Expected scoreline: 2–1 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Iran 2, New Zealand 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.
Iran vs New Zealand head to head
Group G fixture at Inglewood, kickoff Tue 16 Jun, 01:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (IRN #21 vs NZL #85), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.
Iran vs New Zealand line up
Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.
Model favoured Iran — they couldn't separate. Draws count against favourite-wins-only accuracy.
Ranking gap is the story
Iran sit 64 places above New Zealand in the FIFA ranking (#21 vs #85) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Iran comes out at 66%, New Zealand at 14%, with the rest on the draw. Treated as a strong call rather than a foregone conclusion.
How the teams compare
The PL names in each squad
- Chris WoodNott'm Forest
- Marko StamenićNott'm Forest
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