QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Morocco vs Haiti?

Onside's model gives Morocco a 58% win probability (24% draw, Haiti 18%). We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.
MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP C · MD3

Morocco vs HaitiWin Probability & Model Prediction

Wednesday, 24 June 2026 · 22:00 UTC · Atlanta

Onside's AI model gives Morocco 58%, draw 24%, and Haiti 18%. Morocco is the model favourite (moderate confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group C fixture on Wednesday.

MOROCCO WIN
58%
DRAW
24%
HAITI WIN
18%
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.941.01
★ MODE
11
11.5%
21
10.0%
20
9.9%
10
8.9%
00
6.5%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
57%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
56%

Pre-tournament prior model — posterior updates as the group stage plays. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Morocco vs Haiti World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Morocco 58%, draw 24%, and Haiti 18% — morocco favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Morocco vs Haiti prediction score

Expected scoreline: 21 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Morocco 2, Haiti 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

Morocco vs Haiti head to head

Group C fixture at Atlanta, kickoff Wed 24 Jun, 22:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (MAR #8 vs HAI #83), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

Morocco vs Haiti line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

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FAV MAR · MODERATE CONFIDENCE
MODEL RATIONALE

Ranking gap is the story

Morocco sit 75 places above Haiti in the FIFA ranking (#8 vs #83) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Morocco comes out at 58%, Haiti at 18%, with the rest on the draw. Treated as a moderate call rather than a foregone conclusion.

MATCH CONTEXT

How the teams compare

WORLD RANKING
Morocco
#8
Haiti
#83
PREMIER LEAGUE PRESENCE
Morocco
4
Haiti
3
HOME SOIL
Morocco
Haiti
REGION
Morocco
CAF
Haiti
CONCACAF
PREMIER LEAGUE THREAD

The PL names in each squad

Morocco4 PL
  • Noussair MazraouiMan Utd
  • Chadi RiadCrystal Palace
  • Issa DiopWest Ham
  • Chemsdine TalbiSunderland
Haiti3 PL
  • Jean-Ricner BellegardeWolves
  • Wilson IsidorSunderland
  • Hannes DelcroixBurnley
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Morocco vs Haiti Score Prediction & Win Probability — World Cup 2026 · Onside