What is the win probability for New Zealand vs Belgium at the 2026 World Cup?

Onside's AI model gives New Zealand 7%, draw 13%, and Belgium 80% for the Group G fixture at the 2026 World Cup. Belgium is the model favourite with strong confidence.

Who is favourite to win New Zealand vs Belgium?

Belgium is the favourite at 80% model probability vs the underdog at 7%. The Onside Prediction Markets board compares our model to the live betting market.

When do New Zealand and Belgium play at the World Cup 2026?

New Zealand vs Belgium kicks off Saturday, 27 June 2026 at 03:00 UTC in Vancouver, matchday 3 of Group G.

MODEL ACCURACY · LIVE60 of 72 called· Favourite hit-rate 83%→

QUICK ANSWER

Who will win New Zealand vs Belgium?

Onside's model gives Belgium a 80% win probability (13% draw, New Zealand 7%). We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.

MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP G · MD3

New Zealand vs BelgiumWin Probability & Model Prediction

Saturday, 27 June 2026 · 03:00 UTC · Vancouver

Onside's AI model gives New Zealand 7%, draw 13%, and Belgium 80%. Belgium is the model favourite (strong confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group G fixture on Saturday.

NEW ZEALAND WIN

DRAW

13%

BELGIUM WIN

80%

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

0.90 — 3.12

★ MODE

0–3

9.2%

0–2

8.8%

1–3

8.2%

1–2

7.9%

0–4

7.1%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

76%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

57%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

New Zealand vs Belgium World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives New Zealand 7%, draw 13%, and Belgium 80% — belgium favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

New Zealand vs Belgium prediction score

Expected scoreline: 1–3 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (New Zealand 1, Belgium 3). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

New Zealand vs Belgium head to head

Group G fixture at Vancouver, kickoff Sat 27 Jun, 03:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (NZL #85 vs BEL #9), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

New Zealand vs Belgium line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

MODEL SAID · HERE'S WHAT HAPPENED

MODEL CORRECT

PRE-MATCH MODEL

NZL 7% / D 13% / BEL 80%

FINAL SCORE

1–5

Model picked Belgium at 80% — they took the result. Adds to the running accuracy score.

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FAV BEL · STRONG CONFIDENCE

MODEL RATIONALE

Ranking gap is the story

Belgium sit 76 places above New Zealand in the FIFA ranking (#9 vs #85) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Belgium comes out at 80%, New Zealand at 7%, with the rest on the draw. Treated as a strong call rather than a foregone conclusion.

HOW THE MODEL WORKS →

MATCH CONTEXT