QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Scotland vs Brazil?

Onside's model gives Brazil a 45% win probability (27% draw, Scotland 28%). We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.
MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP C · MD3

Scotland vs BrazilWin Probability & Model Prediction

Wednesday, 24 June 2026 · 22:00 UTC · Miami Gardens

Onside's AI model gives Scotland 28%, draw 27%, and Brazil 45%. Brazil is the model favourite (narrow confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group C fixture on Wednesday.

SCOTLAND WIN
28%
DRAW
27%
BRAZIL WIN
45%
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.201.58
★ MODE
11
13.2%
12
9.3%
01
8.4%
02
7.8%
00
7.7%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
52%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
57%

Pre-tournament prior model — posterior updates as the group stage plays. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Scotland vs Brazil World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Scotland 28%, draw 27%, and Brazil 45% — brazil favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Scotland vs Brazil prediction score

Expected scoreline: 12 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Scotland 1, Brazil 2). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

Scotland vs Brazil head to head

Group C fixture at Miami Gardens, kickoff Wed 24 Jun, 22:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (SCO #43 vs BRA #6), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

Scotland vs Brazil line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

TRACK THIS
SHAREXRedditWhatsApp
FAV BRA · NARROW CONFIDENCE
MODEL RATIONALE

Ranking gap is the story

Brazil sit 37 places above Scotland in the FIFA ranking (#6 vs #43) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Brazil comes out at 45%, Scotland at 28%, with the rest on the draw. Treated as a narrow call rather than a foregone conclusion.

MATCH CONTEXT

How the teams compare

WORLD RANKING
Scotland
#43
Brazil
#6
PREMIER LEAGUE PRESENCE
Scotland
5
Brazil
8
HOME SOIL
Scotland
Brazil
REGION
Scotland
UEFA
Brazil
CONMEBOL
PREMIER LEAGUE THREAD

The PL names in each squad

Scotland5 PL
  • Nathan PattersonEverton
  • Aaron HickeyBrentford
  • Andrew RobertsonLiverpool
  • John McGinnAston Villa
  • Ben Gannon-DoakBournemouth
Brazil8 PL
  • Alisson BeckerLiverpool
  • Gabriel MagalhãesArsenal
  • Bruno GuimarãesNewcastle
  • CasemiroMan Utd
  • Matheus CunhaMan Utd
  • Igor ThiagoBrentford
  • Gabriel MartinelliArsenal
  • RayanBournemouth
ONSIDE PREDICTION GAME · FREE TO PLAY

Win 12 months of premium predictions FREE by picking match scores

5 right
1 month
free
10 right
3 months
free
Perfect bracket
12 months
free

Pick scorelines for upcoming fixtures. Every correct call moves you up the ladder. No payment, no card. Just predictions.

Start picking →
Scotland full team page →Brazil full team page →Compare radar →All predictions →
WC MATCHDAY BRIEF · ONE LIST, TWO SEASONS

Get the World Cup brief in your inbox — plus early FPL 2026/27 picks

Match-by-match predictions, captain picks for World Cup Fantasy, likely scorers, and the first FPL 2026/27 differentials to watch. Same engine that powers our Premier League tools, pointed at the world's biggest pre-season.

Weekly digest

Captain picks, transfer tips & differentials — every week.

One email per gameweek. Unsubscribe any time.

SAME ENGINE · POINTED AT FPL

Tracking the World Cup? Use the same engine for FPL 2026/27.

v5 depth-2 GBT stacker · 51k+ OOS predictions · MAE 0.86. Captain picks, MILP squad optimiser, AI Coach, set-piece intel — the production Premier League tools.

Scotland vs Brazil Score Prediction & Win Probability — World Cup 2026 · Onside