QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Scotland vs Morocco?

Onside's model gives Morocco a 44% win probability (28% draw, Scotland 28%). We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.
MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP C · MD2

Scotland vs MoroccoWin Probability & Model Prediction

Friday, 19 June 2026 · 22:00 UTC · Foxborough

Onside's AI model gives Scotland 28%, draw 28%, and Morocco 44%. Morocco is the model favourite (narrow confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group C fixture on Friday.

SCOTLAND WIN
28%
DRAW
28%
MOROCCO WIN
44%
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.231.58
★ MODE
11
13.1%
12
9.3%
01
8.1%
02
7.5%
00
7.4%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
53%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
58%

Pre-tournament prior model — posterior updates as the group stage plays. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Scotland vs Morocco World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Scotland 28%, draw 28%, and Morocco 44% — morocco favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Scotland vs Morocco prediction score

Expected scoreline: 12 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Scotland 1, Morocco 2). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

Scotland vs Morocco head to head

Group C fixture at Foxborough, kickoff Fri 19 Jun, 22:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (SCO #43 vs MAR #8), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

Scotland vs Morocco line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

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FAV MAR · NARROW CONFIDENCE
MODEL RATIONALE

Ranking gap is the story

Morocco sit 35 places above Scotland in the FIFA ranking (#8 vs #43) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Morocco comes out at 44%, Scotland at 28%, with the rest on the draw. Treated as a narrow call rather than a foregone conclusion.

MATCH CONTEXT

How the teams compare

WORLD RANKING
Scotland
#43
Morocco
#8
PREMIER LEAGUE PRESENCE
Scotland
5
Morocco
4
HOME SOIL
Scotland
Morocco
REGION
Scotland
UEFA
Morocco
CAF
PREMIER LEAGUE THREAD

The PL names in each squad

Scotland5 PL
  • Nathan PattersonEverton
  • Aaron HickeyBrentford
  • Andrew RobertsonLiverpool
  • John McGinnAston Villa
  • Ben Gannon-DoakBournemouth
Morocco4 PL
  • Noussair MazraouiMan Utd
  • Chadi RiadCrystal Palace
  • Issa DiopWest Ham
  • Chemsdine TalbiSunderland
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Scotland vs Morocco Score Prediction & Win Probability — World Cup 2026 · Onside