What is the win probability for Senegal vs Iraq at the 2026 World Cup?

Onside's AI model gives Senegal 88%, draw 8%, and Iraq 4% for the Group I fixture at the 2026 World Cup. Senegal is the model favourite with strong confidence.

Who is favourite to win Senegal vs Iraq?

Senegal is the favourite at 88% model probability vs the underdog at 4%. The Onside Prediction Markets board compares our model to the live betting market.

When do Senegal and Iraq play at the World Cup 2026?

Senegal vs Iraq kicks off Friday, 26 June 2026 at 19:00 UTC in Toronto, matchday 3 of Group I.

MODEL ACCURACY · LIVE60 of 72 called· Favourite hit-rate 83%→

QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Senegal vs Iraq?

Onside's model gives Senegal a 88% win probability (8% draw, Iraq 4%). We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.

MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP I · MD3

Senegal vs IraqWin Probability & Model Prediction

Friday, 26 June 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Toronto

Onside's AI model gives Senegal 88%, draw 8%, and Iraq 4%. Senegal is the model favourite (strong confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group I fixture on Friday.

SENEGAL WIN

88%

DRAW

IRAQ WIN

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

4.16 — 1.04

★ MODE

4–1

7.4%

3–1

7.1%

4–0

7.0%

3–0

6.8%

5–1

6.1%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

89%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

64%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Senegal vs Iraq World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Senegal 88%, draw 8%, and Iraq 4% — senegal favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Senegal vs Iraq prediction score

Expected scoreline: 4–1 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Senegal 4, Iraq 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

Senegal vs Iraq head to head

Group I fixture at Toronto, kickoff Fri 26 Jun, 19:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (SEN #14 vs IRQ #57), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

Senegal vs Iraq line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

MODEL SAID · HERE'S WHAT HAPPENED

MODEL CORRECT

PRE-MATCH MODEL

SEN 88% / D 8% / IRQ 4%

FINAL SCORE

5–0

Model picked Senegal at 88% — they took the result. Adds to the running accuracy score.

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FAV SEN · STRONG CONFIDENCE

MODEL RATIONALE

Ranking gap is the story

Senegal sit 43 places above Iraq in the FIFA ranking (#14 vs #57) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Senegal comes out at 88%, Iraq at 4%, with the rest on the draw. Treated as a strong call rather than a foregone conclusion.

HOW THE MODEL WORKS →

MATCH CONTEXT