What is the win probability for Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina at the 2026 World Cup?

Onside's AI model gives Switzerland 65%, draw 19%, and Bosnia & Herzegovina 16% for the Group B fixture at the 2026 World Cup. Switzerland is the model favourite with strong confidence.

Who is favourite to win Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina?

Switzerland is the favourite at 65% model probability vs the underdog at 16%. The Onside Prediction Markets board compares our model to the live betting market.

When do Switzerland and Bosnia & Herzegovina play at the World Cup 2026?

Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina kicks off Thursday, 18 June 2026 at 19:00 UTC in Inglewood, matchday 2 of Group B.

MODEL ACCURACY · LIVE60 of 72 called· Favourite hit-rate 83%→

QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina?

Onside's model gives Switzerland a 65% win probability (19% draw, Bosnia & Herzegovina 16%). We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.

MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP B · MD2

Switzerland vs Bosnia & HerzegovinaWin Probability & Model Prediction

Thursday, 18 June 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Inglewood

Onside's AI model gives Switzerland 65%, draw 19%, and Bosnia & Herzegovina 16%. Switzerland is the model favourite (strong confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group B fixture on Thursday.

SWITZERLAND WIN

65%

DRAW

19%

BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA WIN

16%

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

2.54 — 1.21

★ MODE

2–1

9.2%

1–1

8.1%

3–1

7.8%

2–0

7.6%

3–0

6.4%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

72%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

66%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Switzerland 65%, draw 19%, and Bosnia & Herzegovina 16% — switzerland favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina prediction score

Expected scoreline: 3–1 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Switzerland 3, Bosnia & Herzegovina 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina head to head

Group B fixture at Inglewood, kickoff Thu 18 Jun, 19:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (SUI #19 vs BIH #65), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

MODEL SAID · HERE'S WHAT HAPPENED

MODEL CORRECT

PRE-MATCH MODEL

SUI 65% / D 19% / BIH 16%

FINAL SCORE

4–1

Model picked Switzerland at 65% — they took the result. Adds to the running accuracy score.

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FAV SUI · STRONG CONFIDENCE

MODEL RATIONALE

Ranking gap is the story

Switzerland sit 46 places above Bosnia & Herzegovina in the FIFA ranking (#19 vs #65) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Switzerland comes out at 65%, Bosnia & Herzegovina at 16%, with the rest on the draw. Treated as a strong call rather than a foregone conclusion.

HOW THE MODEL WORKS →

MATCH CONTEXT