QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Sweden vs Tunisia?

Onside's model gives Sweden a 39% win probability (28% draw, Tunisia 33%). We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.
MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP F · MD1

Sweden vs TunisiaWin Probability & Model Prediction

Monday, 15 June 2026 · 02:00 UTC · Guadalupe

Onside's AI model gives Sweden 39%, draw 28%, and Tunisia 33%. Sweden is the model favourite (level confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group F fixture on Monday.

SWEDEN WIN
39%
DRAW
28%
TUNISIA WIN
33%
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.481.35
★ MODE
11
13.2%
21
8.7%
12
7.9%
10
7.4%
00
7.3%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
54%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
59%

Pre-tournament prior model — posterior updates as the group stage plays. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Sweden vs Tunisia World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Sweden 39%, draw 28%, and Tunisia 33% — sweden favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Sweden vs Tunisia prediction score

Expected scoreline: 11 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Sweden 1, Tunisia 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

Sweden vs Tunisia head to head

Group F fixture at Guadalupe, kickoff Mon 15 Jun, 02:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (SWE #38 vs TUN #44), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

Sweden vs Tunisia line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

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FAV SWE · LEVEL CONFIDENCEUPSET WATCH
MODEL RATIONALE

Region pedigree separates them

Sweden (UEFA) and Tunisia (CAF) have similar FIFA ranks, but recent World Cups have been tougher for sides outside the European and South American confederations to beat top-band opposition in knockout matches. Sweden sit at 39%, Tunisia at 33%.

MATCH CONTEXT

How the teams compare

WORLD RANKING
Sweden
#38
Tunisia
#44
PREMIER LEAGUE PRESENCE
Sweden
6
Tunisia
1
HOME SOIL
Sweden
Tunisia
REGION
Sweden
UEFA
Tunisia
CAF
PREMIER LEAGUE THREAD

The PL names in each squad

Sweden6 PL
  • Alexander IsakLiverpool
  • Viktor GyökeresArsenal
  • Anthony ElangaNewcastle
  • Lucas BergvallSpurs
  • Yasin AyariBrighton
  • Victor LindelöfAston Villa
Tunisia1 PL
  • Hannibal MejbriBurnley
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Sweden vs Tunisia Score Prediction & Win Probability — World Cup 2026 · Onside