Who will win Tunisia vs Netherlands?
Tunisia vs NetherlandsWin Probability & Model Prediction
Onside's AI model gives Tunisia 28%, draw 28%, and Netherlands 44%. Netherlands is the model favourite (narrow confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group F fixture on Thursday.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Pre-tournament prior model — posterior updates as the group stage plays. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Tunisia vs Netherlands World Cup 2026 prediction
Onside's model gives Tunisia 28%, draw 28%, and Netherlands 44% — netherlands favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.
Tunisia vs Netherlands prediction score
Expected scoreline: 1–2 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Tunisia 1, Netherlands 2). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.
Tunisia vs Netherlands head to head
Group F fixture at Kansas City, kickoff Thu 25 Jun, 23:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (TUN #44 vs NED #7), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.
Tunisia vs Netherlands line up
Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.
Ranking gap is the story
Netherlands sit 37 places above Tunisia in the FIFA ranking (#7 vs #44) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Netherlands comes out at 44%, Tunisia at 28%, with the rest on the draw. Treated as a narrow call rather than a foregone conclusion.
How the teams compare
The PL names in each squad
- Hannibal MejbriBurnley
- Mark FlekkenBrentford
- Robin RoefsSunderland
- Bart VerbruggenBrighton
- Nathan AkéMan City
- Virgil van DijkLiverpool
- Jorrel HatoChelsea
- Jan Paul van HeckeBrighton
- Micky van de VenSpurs
- + 9 more
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