QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Türkiye vs Paraguay?

Onside's model gives Türkiye a 39% win probability (30% draw, Paraguay 31%). We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.
MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP D · MD2

Türkiye vs ParaguayWin Probability & Model Prediction

Saturday, 20 June 2026 · 03:00 UTC · Santa Clara

Onside's AI model gives Türkiye 39%, draw 30%, and Paraguay 31%. Türkiye is the model favourite (level confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group D fixture on Saturday.

TÜRKIYE WIN
39%
DRAW
30%
PARAGUAY WIN
31%
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.351.17
★ MODE
11
14.2%
00
9.6%
10
9.3%
21
8.6%
01
7.9%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
46%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
53%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Türkiye vs Paraguay World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Türkiye 39%, draw 30%, and Paraguay 31% — türkiye favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Türkiye vs Paraguay prediction score

Expected scoreline: 11 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Türkiye 1, Paraguay 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

Türkiye vs Paraguay head to head

Group D fixture at Santa Clara, kickoff Sat 20 Jun, 03:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (TUR #22 vs PAR #40), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

Türkiye vs Paraguay line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

MODEL SAID · HERE'S WHAT HAPPENED
UPSET · MODEL WRONG
PRE-MATCH MODEL
TUR 39% / D 30% / PAR 31%
FINAL SCORE
01

Model favoured Türkiye at 39% — but Paraguay took the result. One of the upsets we flagged at pre-match.

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FAV TUR · LEVEL CONFIDENCEUPSET WATCH
MODEL RATIONALE

Ranking gap is the story

Türkiye sit 18 places above Paraguay in the FIFA ranking (#22 vs #40) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Türkiye comes out at 39%, Paraguay at 31%, with the rest on the draw. Combined upset-or-draw chance keeps this one flagged as Upset Watch.

MATCH CONTEXT

How the teams compare

WORLD RANKING
Türkiye
#22
Paraguay
#40
PREMIER LEAGUE PRESENCE
Türkiye
1
Paraguay
1
HOME SOIL
Türkiye
Paraguay
REGION
Türkiye
UEFA
Paraguay
CONMEBOL
PREMIER LEAGUE THREAD

The PL names in each squad

Türkiye1 PL
  • Altay BayındırMan Utd
Paraguay1 PL
  • Diego GómezBrighton
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