Who will win Türkiye vs Paraguay?
Türkiye vs ParaguayWin Probability & Model Prediction
Onside's AI model gives Türkiye 39%, draw 30%, and Paraguay 31%. Türkiye is the model favourite (level confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group D fixture on Saturday.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Türkiye vs Paraguay World Cup 2026 prediction
Onside's model gives Türkiye 39%, draw 30%, and Paraguay 31% — türkiye favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.
Türkiye vs Paraguay prediction score
Expected scoreline: 1–1 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Türkiye 1, Paraguay 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.
Türkiye vs Paraguay head to head
Group D fixture at Santa Clara, kickoff Sat 20 Jun, 03:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (TUR #22 vs PAR #40), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.
Türkiye vs Paraguay line up
Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.
Model favoured Türkiye at 39% — but Paraguay took the result. One of the upsets we flagged at pre-match.
Ranking gap is the story
Türkiye sit 18 places above Paraguay in the FIFA ranking (#22 vs #40) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Türkiye comes out at 39%, Paraguay at 31%, with the rest on the draw. Combined upset-or-draw chance keeps this one flagged as Upset Watch.
How the teams compare
The PL names in each squad
- Altay BayındırMan Utd
- Diego GómezBrighton
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