QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Uruguay vs Cape Verde?

Onside's model gives Uruguay a 52% win probability (26% draw, Cape Verde 22%). We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.
MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP H · MD2

Uruguay vs Cape VerdeWin Probability & Model Prediction

Sunday, 21 June 2026 · 22:00 UTC · Miami Gardens

Onside's AI model gives Uruguay 52%, draw 26%, and Cape Verde 22%. Uruguay is the model favourite (moderate confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group H fixture on Sunday.

URUGUAY WIN
52%
DRAW
26%
CAPE VERDE WIN
22%
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.781.09
★ MODE
11
12.3%
21
9.8%
20
8.9%
10
8.8%
00
7.0%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
55%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
57%

Pre-tournament prior model — posterior updates as the group stage plays. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Uruguay vs Cape Verde World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Uruguay 52%, draw 26%, and Cape Verde 22% — uruguay favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Uruguay vs Cape Verde prediction score

Expected scoreline: 21 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Uruguay 2, Cape Verde 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

Uruguay vs Cape Verde head to head

Group H fixture at Miami Gardens, kickoff Sun 21 Jun, 22:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (URU #17 vs CPV #69), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

Uruguay vs Cape Verde line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

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FAV URU · MODERATE CONFIDENCE
MODEL RATIONALE

Ranking gap is the story

Uruguay sit 52 places above Cape Verde in the FIFA ranking (#17 vs #69) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Uruguay comes out at 52%, Cape Verde at 22%, with the rest on the draw. Treated as a moderate call rather than a foregone conclusion.

MATCH CONTEXT

How the teams compare

WORLD RANKING
Uruguay
#17
Cape Verde
#69
PREMIER LEAGUE PRESENCE
Uruguay
2
Cape Verde
0
HOME SOIL
Uruguay
Cape Verde
REGION
Uruguay
CONMEBOL
Cape Verde
CAF
PREMIER LEAGUE THREAD

The PL names in each squad

Uruguay2 PL
  • Manuel UgarteMan Utd
  • Rodrigo BentancurSpurs
Cape Verde0 PL
No current Premier League names in this squad.
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Uruguay vs Cape Verde Score Prediction & Win Probability — World Cup 2026 · Onside