What is the win probability for Uruguay vs Spain at the 2026 World Cup?

Onside's AI model gives Uruguay 12%, draw 27%, and Spain 61% for the Group H fixture at the 2026 World Cup. Spain is the model favourite with moderate confidence.

Who is favourite to win Uruguay vs Spain?

Spain is the favourite at 61% model probability vs the underdog at 12%. The Onside Prediction Markets board compares our model to the live betting market.

When do Uruguay and Spain play at the World Cup 2026?

Uruguay vs Spain kicks off Saturday, 27 June 2026 at 00:00 UTC in Zapopan, matchday 3 of Group H.

MODEL ACCURACY · LIVE60 of 72 called· Favourite hit-rate 83%→

QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Uruguay vs Spain?

Onside's model gives Spain a 61% win probability (27% draw, Uruguay 12%). We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.

MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP H · MD3

Uruguay vs SpainWin Probability & Model Prediction

Saturday, 27 June 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Zapopan

Onside's AI model gives Uruguay 12%, draw 27%, and Spain 61%. Spain is the model favourite (moderate confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group H fixture on Saturday.

URUGUAY WIN

12%

DRAW

27%

SPAIN WIN

61%

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

0.55 — 1.56

★ MODE

0–1

17.6%

0–2

14.7%

0–0

13.3%

1–1

11.7%

1–2

8.1%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

35%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

35%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Uruguay vs Spain World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Uruguay 12%, draw 27%, and Spain 61% — spain favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Uruguay vs Spain prediction score

Expected scoreline: 1–2 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Uruguay 1, Spain 2). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

Uruguay vs Spain head to head

Group H fixture at Zapopan, kickoff Sat 27 Jun, 00:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (URU #17 vs ESP #2), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

Uruguay vs Spain line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

MODEL SAID · HERE'S WHAT HAPPENED

MODEL CORRECT

PRE-MATCH MODEL

URU 12% / D 27% / ESP 61%

FINAL SCORE

0–1

Model picked Spain at 61% — they took the result. Adds to the running accuracy score.

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FAV ESP · MODERATE CONFIDENCEUPSET WATCH

MODEL RATIONALE

Ranking gap is the story

Spain sit 15 places above Uruguay in the FIFA ranking (#2 vs #17) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Spain comes out at 61%, Uruguay at 12%, with the rest on the draw. Combined upset-or-draw chance keeps this one flagged as Upset Watch.

HOW THE MODEL WORKS →

MATCH CONTEXT