QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Uzbekistan vs Colombia?

Onside's model gives Colombia a 45% win probability (28% draw, Uzbekistan 27%). We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.
MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP K · MD1

Uzbekistan vs ColombiaWin Probability & Model Prediction

Thursday, 18 June 2026 · 02:00 UTC · Mexico City

Onside's AI model gives Uzbekistan 27%, draw 28%, and Colombia 45%. Colombia is the model favourite (narrow confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group K fixture on Thursday.

UZBEKISTAN WIN
27%
DRAW
28%
COLOMBIA WIN
45%
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.191.57
★ MODE
11
13.2%
12
9.3%
01
8.5%
02
7.8%
00
7.8%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
52%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
56%

Pre-tournament prior model — posterior updates as the group stage plays. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Uzbekistan vs Colombia World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Uzbekistan 27%, draw 28%, and Colombia 45% — colombia favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Uzbekistan vs Colombia prediction score

Expected scoreline: 12 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Uzbekistan 1, Colombia 2). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

Uzbekistan vs Colombia head to head

Group K fixture at Mexico City, kickoff Thu 18 Jun, 02:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (UZB #50 vs COL #13), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

Uzbekistan vs Colombia line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

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FAV COL · NARROW CONFIDENCE
MODEL RATIONALE

Ranking gap is the story

Colombia sit 37 places above Uzbekistan in the FIFA ranking (#13 vs #50) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Colombia comes out at 45%, Uzbekistan at 27%, with the rest on the draw. Treated as a narrow call rather than a foregone conclusion.

MATCH CONTEXT

How the teams compare

WORLD RANKING
Uzbekistan
#50
Colombia
#13
PREMIER LEAGUE PRESENCE
Uzbekistan
1
Colombia
2
HOME SOIL
Uzbekistan
Colombia
REGION
Uzbekistan
AFC
Colombia
CONMEBOL
PREMIER LEAGUE THREAD

The PL names in each squad

Uzbekistan1 PL
  • Abdukodir KhusanovMan City
Colombia2 PL
  • Daniel MuñozCrystal Palace
  • Jefferson LermaCrystal Palace
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Uzbekistan vs Colombia Score Prediction & Win Probability — World Cup 2026 · Onside