CHAMPION PROBABILITY · WC 2026 · UPDATED HOURLY

Can Cape Verde win the World Cup 2026?

ONSIDE AI · VERDICT

UNLIKELY — tournament far too open. Onside's 2,000-run Monte Carlo gives Cape Verde a 0.0% champion probability — ranked #40 of 48 nations. Cape Verde is a long-shot (FIFA #69, 0 Premier League players in the squad).

🇨🇻Cape VerdeGroup HFIFA #69CAF
QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Can Cape Verde win the World Cup 2026?

Onside's model puts Cape Verde's championship probability at 0.0% a heavy outsider, ranked 40th of 48. Updated live as group-stage and knockout results land; see the full board on the winner page.

Cape Verde World Cup 2026 chances

From 0.0% now, Cape Verde's number moves with every match — a group-stage upset re-shrinks it; a clean win against an in-form opponent expands it. Onside re-runs a 10,000-simulation Monte Carlo on every result so the chance number you see here is the most current model snapshot, not a pre-tournament freeze.

Cape Verde's route to the final

Group stage first, then a six-game knockout to lift the trophy. Onside's knockout simulator shows the most likely opponent at each round; the bracket below traces the full Monte Carlo path for Cape Verde.

Cape Verde's path to the final

REACH R16
2.4%
REACH QF
0.1%
REACH SF
0.0%
REACH FINAL
0.0%
CHAMPION
0.0%

Cape Verde's group fixtures

3 GROUP MATCHES · MODEL WIN PROBABILITY

Cape Verde vs the field

TOP CHAMPION-PROBABILITY RIVALS

In one line

Cape Verde is a long shot to win the 2026 World Cup — Onside's AI model gives them 0.0% champion probability, ranking them #40 of 48 nations. They play in Group H and have 0 Premier League players in their squad. Group-stage survival itself is uncertain (2.4% R16).

Full champion-probability board →Cape Verde team pageUpset watchlist →Build your own bracket →
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Can Cape Verde Win the World Cup 2026? AI Champion Probability + Path to Final · Onside