QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Spain vs Cape Verde?

Onside's model gives Spain a 56% win probability (25% draw, Cape Verde 19%). We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.
MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP H · MD1

Spain vs Cape VerdeWin Probability & Model Prediction

Monday, 15 June 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Atlanta

Onside's AI model gives Spain 56%, draw 25%, and Cape Verde 19%. Spain is the model favourite (moderate confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group H fixture on Monday.

SPAIN WIN
56%
DRAW
25%
CAPE VERDE WIN
19%
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.871.01
★ MODE
11
11.9%
21
9.9%
20
9.8%
10
9.2%
00
6.9%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
55%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
55%

Pre-tournament prior model — posterior updates as the group stage plays. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Spain vs Cape Verde World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Spain 56%, draw 25%, and Cape Verde 19% — spain favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Spain vs Cape Verde prediction score

Expected scoreline: 21 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Spain 2, Cape Verde 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

Spain vs Cape Verde head to head

Group H fixture at Atlanta, kickoff Mon 15 Jun, 16:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (ESP #2 vs CPV #69), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

Spain vs Cape Verde line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

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FAV ESP · MODERATE CONFIDENCE
MODEL RATIONALE

Ranking gap is the story

Spain sit 67 places above Cape Verde in the FIFA ranking (#2 vs #69) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Spain comes out at 56%, Cape Verde at 19%, with the rest on the draw. Treated as a moderate call rather than a foregone conclusion.

MATCH CONTEXT

How the teams compare

WORLD RANKING
Spain
#2
Cape Verde
#69
PREMIER LEAGUE PRESENCE
Spain
7
Cape Verde
0
HOME SOIL
Spain
Cape Verde
REGION
Spain
UEFA
Cape Verde
CAF
PREMIER LEAGUE THREAD

The PL names in each squad

Spain7 PL
  • David RayaArsenal
  • Pedro PorroSpurs
  • Marc CucurellaChelsea
  • RodriMan City
  • Martín ZubimendiArsenal
  • Mikel MerinoArsenal
  • Yeremy PinoCrystal Palace
Cape Verde0 PL
No current Premier League names in this squad.
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Spain vs Cape Verde Score Prediction & Win Probability — World Cup 2026 · Onside