#1 GAP
OUTCOME
Mexico to beat South Africa
ONSIDE
88.0%
+46.0pp
MARKET
42.0%
ONSIDE AI · PREDICTION MARKETS · GRADED PUBLICLY
Onside vs the Markets
24 marketsPhase 1 · pre-tournamentGrading starts 11 Jun
Real-money markets like Polymarket pool the wisdom of thousands of bettors into one price per match. We pit our open AI model against that crowd-pooled number and grade both publicly after every fixture. No hidden misses.
ONSIDE AI · MODEL v5 · UPDATED HOURLY
TOP EDGES · 24 ACTIVE MARKETS
Mexico to beat South Africa+46.0pp
88%
Germany to beat Curaçao+21.0pp
95%
Portugal to beat DR Congo+13.0pp
82%
Spain to beat Cape Verde+12.0pp
94%
France to beat Senegal-10.0pp
56%
Vertical line = market price · Bar = Onside model · Acid = Onside higher · Red = market higher
NEW HERE? START WITH THIS
What's a prediction market?
A place where people put real money on outcomes. The price of a contract becomes the crowd's estimated probability. If a contract pays $1 if Argentina wins and trades at 22¢, the crowd thinks Argentina has a 22% chance. Polymarket is the largest such venue.
What does Onside actually do?
We run a 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo over each fixture using Onside's calibrated prediction model. The simulation outputs a probability for every outcome. We then compare ours with the market price.
What is “Brier”?
A score for how good a probability forecast is. Lower = sharper. If you said “France wins 70%” and France wins, you score better than “France wins 51%”. Below, we show our Brier and the market's side-by-side — graded live after each match.
Why this matters: markets and models can both be wrong, but they tend to fail in different ways. When they disagree, it's a signal worth watching. We post the gap, the reasoning, and the after-the-fact verdict — even when our model gets it wrong.
ONSIDE MODEL
Brier 0.000
0 GRADED MATCHES · LIVE 11 JUN
POLYMARKET
Brier 0.000
0 GRADED MATCHES · LIVE 11 JUN
THE ANSWER IN 50 WORDS
The Edge Board compares Onside's 10,000-simulation AI model probabilities with Polymarket's live market prices for every 2026 World Cup market, ranked by how far apart they are. Both sides are scored with a public Brier score after each match — we publish the misses too. Informational comparison, not betting advice.
Prices as of 5 Jun 2026, 08:00 · Source: polymarket.com · Model: onsidearena.com/world-cup-2026/methodology
The 3 biggest gaps right now
RANKED BY ABSOLUTE DIVERGENCE
#2 GAP
OUTCOME
Germany to beat Curaçao
ONSIDE
95.0%
+21.0pp
MARKET
74.0%
#3 GAP
OUTCOME
Portugal to beat DR Congo
ONSIDE
82.0%
+13.0pp
MARKET
69.0%
All markets
24 OUTCOMES · MODEL % VS MARKET % · GAP IN PERCENTAGE POINTS
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FAQ
What is the Edge Board?
The Edge Board compares Onside's 10,000-simulation AI model probabilities with Polymarket's live market prices for every 2026 World Cup market, ranked by how far apart they are. Both sides are graded with a public Brier score after each match. It's an experiment, not a boast — we publish the misses too.
How are the model and the market both graded?
Once a match finishes, both probabilities are scored using the multinomial Brier score (lower = sharper). The graded ledger below the live board shows every closed market with both scores side-by-side and a running tally. We publish wins, losses and ties — never hidden.
Is this betting advice?
No. The Edge Board is an informational comparison of two probability sources — our open model and Polymarket's market prices. We do not offer or recommend any wagers, do not link to operators, and do not endorse any market. UK readers in particular should treat this as research, not advice.
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