What is the win probability for Portugal vs DR Congo at the 2026 World Cup?

Onside's AI model gives Portugal 57%, draw 27%, and DR Congo 16% for the Group K fixture at the 2026 World Cup. Portugal is the model favourite with moderate confidence.

Who is favourite to win Portugal vs DR Congo?

Portugal is the favourite at 57% model probability vs the underdog at 16%. The Onside Prediction Markets board compares our model to the live betting market.

When do Portugal and DR Congo play at the World Cup 2026?

Portugal vs DR Congo kicks off Wednesday, 17 June 2026 at 17:00 UTC in Houston, matchday 1 of Group K.

MODEL ACCURACY · LIVE60 of 72 called· Favourite hit-rate 83%→

QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Portugal vs DR Congo?

Onside's model gives Portugal a 57% win probability (27% draw, DR Congo 16%). We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.

MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP K · MD1

Portugal vs DR CongoWin Probability & Model Prediction

Wednesday, 17 June 2026 · 17:00 UTC · Houston

Onside's AI model gives Portugal 57%, draw 27%, and DR Congo 16%. Portugal is the model favourite (moderate confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group K fixture on Wednesday.

PORTUGAL WIN

57%

DRAW

27%

DR CONGO WIN

16%

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

1.61 — 0.73

★ MODE

1–0

14.1%

1–1

12.7%

2–0

12.4%

0–0

10.9%

2–1

9.1%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

42%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

43%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Portugal vs DR Congo World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Portugal 57%, draw 27%, and DR Congo 16% — portugal favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Portugal vs DR Congo prediction score

Expected scoreline: 2–1 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Portugal 2, DR Congo 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

Portugal vs DR Congo head to head

Group K fixture at Houston, kickoff Wed 17 Jun, 17:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (POR #5 vs COD #46), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

Portugal vs DR Congo line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

MODEL SAID · HERE'S WHAT HAPPENED

DRAW · MODEL FAVOURITE DIDN'T WIN

PRE-MATCH MODEL

POR 57% / D 27% / COD 16%

FINAL SCORE

1–1

Model favoured Portugal — they couldn't separate. Draws count against favourite-wins-only accuracy.

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FAV POR · MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MODEL RATIONALE

Ranking gap is the story

Portugal sit 41 places above DR Congo in the FIFA ranking (#5 vs #46) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Portugal comes out at 57%, DR Congo at 16%, with the rest on the draw. Treated as a moderate call rather than a foregone conclusion.

HOW THE MODEL WORKS →

MATCH CONTEXT