Who will win England vs Croatia?
England vs CroatiaWin Probability & Model Prediction
Onside's AI model gives England 39%, draw 29%, and Croatia 32%. England is the model favourite (level confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group L fixture on Wednesday.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Pre-tournament prior model — posterior updates as the group stage plays. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
England vs Croatia World Cup 2026 prediction
Onside's model gives England 39%, draw 29%, and Croatia 32% — england favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.
England vs Croatia prediction score
Expected scoreline: 1–1 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (England 1, Croatia 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.
England vs Croatia head to head
Group L fixture at Arlington, kickoff Wed 17 Jun, 20:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (ENG #4 vs CRO #11), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.
England vs Croatia line up
Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.
Squad depth makes the difference
England bring 21 Premier League regulars into the squad, Croatia bring 3 — a useful proxy for tournament fitness when FIFA ranks are within a handful of places. England 39% vs Croatia 32%.
How the teams compare
The PL names in each squad
- Dean HendersonCrystal Palace
- Jordan PickfordEverton
- James TraffordMan City
- Dan BurnNewcastle
- Marc GuéhiCrystal Palace
- Reece JamesChelsea
- Ezri KonsaAston Villa
- Tino LivramentoNewcastle
- + 13 more
- Joško GvardiolMan City
- Luka VuškovićSpurs
- Mateo KovačićMan City
The rematch eight years in the making
England and Croatia's most-watched meeting remains the 2018 World Cup semi-final in Moscow, when Mario Mandžukić's extra-time winner ended Gareth Southgate's first run. Eight years on, the rematch arrives in Texas with both squads almost entirely turned over — and Luka Modrić in his last World Cup.
Trippier early; Perišić + Mandžukić in extra time. The defining meeting.
Kane late winner. England top the group, Croatia relegated.
Behind closed doors. Mutually cautious.
Walcott hat-trick; England seal Euros.
McClaren's umbrella; England out of Euro 2008.
The three matchups that swing the model
The big football story of the tournament's opening week. Modrić is in his fourth and final World Cup; Bellingham is in his first as England's free 8/10. Whoever controls the middle controls the game.
Croatia's back-line concedes most chances down their left. Saka is on form and on penalties for England — the prime fantasy + model angle for an early goal.
England's record goalscorer against the best left-sided centre-back in Europe. Two PL-familiar opponents — both at home in the moment, both with everything to play for.
Group L permutations
The fantasy picks the model rates highest
England vs Croatia FAQ
+What time does England vs Croatia kick off in the UK?
England vs Croatia kicks off at 21:00 BST on Wednesday 17 June 2026 — 20:00 UTC, 15:00 ET — at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
+Where can I watch England vs Croatia in the UK?
BBC and ITV share UK broadcast rights for the 2026 World Cup. We list every UK channel allocation on our How to Watch page; check there closer to kick-off for the confirmed channel.
+Who are England playing first at the 2026 World Cup?
England open their 2026 World Cup against Croatia in Group L on Wednesday 17 June, followed by Ghana (23 June) and Panama (27 June).
+What happened the last time England played Croatia?
Their most famous meeting was the 2018 World Cup semi-final in Moscow, which Croatia won 2-1 in extra time through goals from Ivan Perišić and Mario Mandžukić. The all-time record across nine meetings is England 4 wins, Croatia 4 wins, 1 draw.
+Who is the model favourite for England vs Croatia?
The Onside model leans toward England as the favourite based on overall team strength and squad depth, with Croatia as the credible upset side. Exact win-probability split sits at the top of this page and updates live.
+Is this Modrić's last World Cup?
Luka Modrić has confirmed the 2026 tournament is his last World Cup at age 40. England vs Croatia is one of three group matches he is expected to start.
+What are England's chances of winning Group L?
England begin Group L as model favourites to finish top. A win against Croatia would all but secure first place; even a draw keeps them on the front foot heading into Ghana (MD2) and Panama (MD3).
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