Can United States win the World Cup 2026?
LONG SHOT — significant upsets required. Onside's 2,000-run Monte Carlo gives United States a 3.9% champion probability — ranked #9 of 48 nations. United States is a second-tier contender (FIFA #16, 4 Premier League players in the squad).
Can United States win the World Cup 2026?
Onside's model puts United States's championship probability at 3.9% — a long shot, ranked 9th of 48. Updated live as group-stage and knockout results land; see the full board on the winner page.
United States World Cup 2026 chances
From 3.9% now, United States's number moves with every match — a group-stage upset re-shrinks it; a clean win against an in-form opponent expands it. Onside re-runs a 10,000-simulation Monte Carlo on every result so the chance number you see here is the most current model snapshot, not a pre-tournament freeze.
United States's route to the final
Group stage first, then a six-game knockout to lift the trophy. Onside's knockout simulator shows the most likely opponent at each round; the bracket below traces the full Monte Carlo path for United States.
United States's path to the final
United States's group fixtures
3 GROUP MATCHES · MODEL WIN PROBABILITY
United States vs the field
TOP CHAMPION-PROBABILITY RIVALS
United States's Premier League players
4 PL PLAYERS IN THE SQUAD
In one line
United States is a long shot to win the 2026 World Cup — Onside's AI model gives them 3.9% champion probability, ranking them #9 of 48 nations. They play in Group D and have 4 Premier League players in their squad. Their model probability to reach the knockout rounds is high (83.2% R16).
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