QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Türkiye vs United States?

Onside's model gives United States a 59% win probability (21% draw, Türkiye 20%). We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.
MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP D · MD3

Türkiye vs United StatesWin Probability & Model Prediction

Friday, 26 June 2026 · 02:00 UTC · Inglewood

Onside's AI model gives Türkiye 20%, draw 21%, and United States 59%. United States is the model favourite (moderate confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group D fixture on Friday.

TÜRKIYE WIN
20%
DRAW
21%
UNITED STATES WIN
59%
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.282.28
★ MODE
12
9.5%
11
9.3%
02
7.4%
13
7.2%
22
6.1%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
69%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
66%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Türkiye vs United States World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Türkiye 20%, draw 21%, and United States 59% — united states favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Türkiye vs United States prediction score

Expected scoreline: 12 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Türkiye 1, United States 2). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

Türkiye vs United States head to head

Group D fixture at Inglewood, kickoff Fri 26 Jun, 02:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (TUR #22 vs USA #16), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

Türkiye vs United States line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

MODEL SAID · HERE'S WHAT HAPPENED
UPSET · MODEL WRONG
PRE-MATCH MODEL
TUR 20% / D 21% / USA 59%
FINAL SCORE
32

Model favoured United States at 59% — but Türkiye took the result. One of the upsets we flagged at pre-match.

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MODEL RATIONALE

Home soil tilts a tight match

Rankings are close (#16 vs #22), but United States plays on home soil — a meaningful nudge in international tournaments going back decades. United States land on 59%, Türkiye on 20%, with 21% on the draw.

MATCH CONTEXT

How the teams compare

WORLD RANKING
Türkiye
#22
United States
#16
PREMIER LEAGUE PRESENCE
Türkiye
1
United States
4
HOME SOIL
Türkiye
United States
YES
REGION
Türkiye
UEFA
United States
CONCACAF
PREMIER LEAGUE THREAD

The PL names in each squad

Türkiye1 PL
  • Altay BayındırMan Utd
United States4 PL
  • Chris RichardsCrystal Palace
  • Antonee RobinsonFulham
  • Tyler AdamsBournemouth
  • Brenden AaronsonLeeds
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