Who will win Ivory Coast vs Ecuador?
Ivory Coast vs EcuadorWin Probability & Model Prediction
Onside's AI model gives Ivory Coast 35%, draw 28%, and Ecuador 37%. Ecuador is the model favourite (level confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group E fixture on Sunday.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Pre-tournament prior model — posterior updates as the group stage plays. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ivory Coast vs Ecuador World Cup 2026 prediction
Onside's model gives Ivory Coast 35%, draw 28%, and Ecuador 37% — ecuador favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.
Ivory Coast vs Ecuador prediction score
Expected scoreline: 1–1 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Ivory Coast 1, Ecuador 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.
Ivory Coast vs Ecuador head to head
Group E fixture at Philadelphia, kickoff Sun 14 Jun, 23:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (CIV #34 vs ECU #23), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.
Ivory Coast vs Ecuador line up
Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.
Ranking gap is the story
Ecuador sit 11 places above Ivory Coast in the FIFA ranking (#23 vs #34) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Ecuador comes out at 37%, Ivory Coast at 35%, with the rest on the draw. Combined upset-or-draw chance keeps this one flagged as Upset Watch.
How the teams compare
The PL names in each squad
- Ibrahim SangaréNott'm Forest
- Simon AdingraSunderland
- Amad DialloMan Utd
- Evann GuessandCrystal Palace
- Moisés CaicedoChelsea
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