QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Ivory Coast vs Ecuador?

Onside's model gives Ecuador a 37% win probability (28% draw, Ivory Coast 35%). We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.
MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP E · MD1

Ivory Coast vs EcuadorWin Probability & Model Prediction

Sunday, 14 June 2026 · 23:00 UTC · Philadelphia

Onside's AI model gives Ivory Coast 35%, draw 28%, and Ecuador 37%. Ecuador is the model favourite (level confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group E fixture on Sunday.

IVORY COAST WIN
35%
DRAW
28%
ECUADOR WIN
37%
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.381.44
★ MODE
11
13.3%
12
8.5%
21
8.2%
00
7.4%
01
7.2%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
53%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
58%

Pre-tournament prior model — posterior updates as the group stage plays. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Ivory Coast vs Ecuador World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Ivory Coast 35%, draw 28%, and Ecuador 37% — ecuador favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Ivory Coast vs Ecuador prediction score

Expected scoreline: 11 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Ivory Coast 1, Ecuador 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

Ivory Coast vs Ecuador head to head

Group E fixture at Philadelphia, kickoff Sun 14 Jun, 23:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (CIV #34 vs ECU #23), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

Ivory Coast vs Ecuador line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

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FAV ECU · LEVEL CONFIDENCEUPSET WATCH
MODEL RATIONALE

Ranking gap is the story

Ecuador sit 11 places above Ivory Coast in the FIFA ranking (#23 vs #34) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Ecuador comes out at 37%, Ivory Coast at 35%, with the rest on the draw. Combined upset-or-draw chance keeps this one flagged as Upset Watch.

MATCH CONTEXT

How the teams compare

WORLD RANKING
Ivory Coast
#34
Ecuador
#23
PREMIER LEAGUE PRESENCE
Ivory Coast
4
Ecuador
1
HOME SOIL
Ivory Coast
Ecuador
REGION
Ivory Coast
CAF
Ecuador
CONMEBOL
PREMIER LEAGUE THREAD

The PL names in each squad

Ivory Coast4 PL
  • Ibrahim SangaréNott'm Forest
  • Simon AdingraSunderland
  • Amad DialloMan Utd
  • Evann GuessandCrystal Palace
Ecuador1 PL
  • Moisés CaicedoChelsea
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Ivory Coast vs Ecuador Score Prediction & Win Probability — World Cup 2026 · Onside