What is the win probability for Iraq vs Norway at the 2026 World Cup?

Onside's AI model gives Iraq 7%, draw 10%, and Norway 83% for the Group I fixture at the 2026 World Cup. Norway is the model favourite with strong confidence.

Who is favourite to win Iraq vs Norway?

Norway is the favourite at 83% model probability vs the underdog at 7%. The Onside Prediction Markets board compares our model to the live betting market.

When do Iraq and Norway play at the World Cup 2026?

Iraq vs Norway kicks off Tuesday, 16 June 2026 at 22:00 UTC in Foxborough, matchday 1 of Group I.

MODEL ACCURACY · LIVE60 of 72 called· Favourite hit-rate 83%→

QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Iraq vs Norway?

Onside's model gives Norway a 83% win probability (10% draw, Iraq 7%). We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.

MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP I · MD1

Iraq vs NorwayWin Probability & Model Prediction

Tuesday, 16 June 2026 · 22:00 UTC · Foxborough

Onside's AI model gives Iraq 7%, draw 10%, and Norway 83%. Norway is the model favourite (strong confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group I fixture on Tuesday.

IRAQ WIN

DRAW

10%

NORWAY WIN

83%

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

1.23 — 3.86

★ MODE

1–3

7.4%

1–4

7.1%

0–3

6.0%

0–4

5.8%

1–2

5.7%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

88%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

70%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Iraq vs Norway World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Iraq 7%, draw 10%, and Norway 83% — norway favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Iraq vs Norway prediction score

Expected scoreline: 1–4 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Iraq 1, Norway 4). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

Iraq vs Norway head to head

Group I fixture at Foxborough, kickoff Tue 16 Jun, 22:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (IRQ #57 vs NOR #31), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

Iraq vs Norway line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

MODEL SAID · HERE'S WHAT HAPPENED

MODEL CORRECT

PRE-MATCH MODEL

IRQ 7% / D 10% / NOR 83%

FINAL SCORE

1–4

Model picked Norway at 83% — they took the result. Adds to the running accuracy score.

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FAV NOR · STRONG CONFIDENCE

MODEL RATIONALE

Ranking gap is the story

Norway sit 26 places above Iraq in the FIFA ranking (#31 vs #57) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Norway comes out at 83%, Iraq at 7%, with the rest on the draw. Treated as a strong call rather than a foregone conclusion.

HOW THE MODEL WORKS →

MATCH CONTEXT