What is the win probability for Norway vs France at the 2026 World Cup?

Onside's AI model gives Norway 13%, draw 15%, and France 72% for the Group I fixture at the 2026 World Cup. France is the model favourite with strong confidence.

Who is favourite to win Norway vs France?

France is the favourite at 72% model probability vs the underdog at 13%. The Onside Prediction Markets board compares our model to the live betting market.

When do Norway and France play at the World Cup 2026?

Norway vs France kicks off Friday, 26 June 2026 at 19:00 UTC in Foxborough, matchday 3 of Group I.

MODEL ACCURACY · LIVE60 of 72 called· Favourite hit-rate 83%→

QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Norway vs France?

Onside's model gives France a 72% win probability (15% draw, Norway 13%). We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.

MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP I · MD3

Norway vs FranceWin Probability & Model Prediction

Friday, 26 June 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Foxborough

Onside's AI model gives Norway 13%, draw 15%, and France 72%. France is the model favourite (strong confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group I fixture on Friday.

NORWAY WIN

13%

DRAW

15%

FRANCE WIN

72%

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

1.41 — 3.18

★ MODE

1–3

7.7%

1–2

7.3%

1–4

6.1%

0–3

5.5%

2–3

5.4%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

84%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

73%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Norway vs France World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Norway 13%, draw 15%, and France 72% — france favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Norway vs France prediction score

Expected scoreline: 1–3 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Norway 1, France 3). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

Norway vs France head to head

Group I fixture at Foxborough, kickoff Fri 26 Jun, 19:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (NOR #31 vs FRA #1), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

Norway vs France line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

MODEL SAID · HERE'S WHAT HAPPENED

MODEL CORRECT

PRE-MATCH MODEL

NOR 13% / D 15% / FRA 72%

FINAL SCORE

1–4

Model picked France at 72% — they took the result. Adds to the running accuracy score.

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FAV FRA · STRONG CONFIDENCE

MODEL RATIONALE

Ranking gap is the story

France sit 30 places above Norway in the FIFA ranking (#1 vs #31) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. France comes out at 72%, Norway at 13%, with the rest on the draw. Treated as a strong call rather than a foregone conclusion.

HOW THE MODEL WORKS →

MATCH CONTEXT