Who will win Norway vs Senegal?
Norway vs SenegalWin Probability & Model Prediction
Onside's AI model gives Norway 33%, draw 28%, and Senegal 39%. Senegal is the model favourite (level confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group I fixture on Tuesday.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Pre-tournament prior model — posterior updates as the group stage plays. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Norway vs Senegal World Cup 2026 prediction
Onside's model gives Norway 33%, draw 28%, and Senegal 39% — senegal favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.
Norway vs Senegal prediction score
Expected scoreline: 1–1 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Norway 1, Senegal 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.
Norway vs Senegal head to head
Group I fixture at Toronto, kickoff Tue 23 Jun, 00:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (NOR #31 vs SEN #14), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.
Norway vs Senegal line up
Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.
Ranking gap is the story
Senegal sit 17 places above Norway in the FIFA ranking (#14 vs #31) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Senegal comes out at 39%, Norway at 33%, with the rest on the draw. Combined upset-or-draw chance keeps this one flagged as Upset Watch.
How the teams compare
The PL names in each squad
- David Møller WolfeWolves
- Kristoffer AjerBrentford
- Martin ØdegaardArsenal
- Sander BergeFulham
- Erling HaalandMan City
- Jørgen Strand LarsenCrystal Palace
- Oscar BobbMan City
- Mamadou SarrChelsea
- El-Hadji Malick DioufWest Ham
- Idrissa GueyeEverton
- Habib DiarraSunderland
- Pape Matar SarrSpurs
- Iliman NdiayeEverton
- Nicolas JacksonChelsea
- Ismaïla SarrCrystal Palace
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