Who will win Tunisia vs Japan?
Tunisia vs JapanWin Probability & Model Prediction
Onside's AI model gives Tunisia 31%, draw 28%, and Japan 41%. Japan is the model favourite (narrow confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group F fixture on Sunday.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Pre-tournament prior model — posterior updates as the group stage plays. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Tunisia vs Japan World Cup 2026 prediction
Onside's model gives Tunisia 31%, draw 28%, and Japan 41% — japan favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.
Tunisia vs Japan prediction score
Expected scoreline: 1–2 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Tunisia 1, Japan 2). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.
Tunisia vs Japan head to head
Group F fixture at Guadalupe, kickoff Sun 21 Jun, 04:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (TUN #44 vs JPN #18), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.
Tunisia vs Japan line up
Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.
Ranking gap is the story
Japan sit 26 places above Tunisia in the FIFA ranking (#18 vs #44) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Japan comes out at 41%, Tunisia at 31%, with the rest on the draw. Combined upset-or-draw chance keeps this one flagged as Upset Watch.
How the teams compare
The PL names in each squad
- Hannibal MejbriBurnley
- Wataru EndoLiverpool
- Daichi KamadaCrystal Palace
- Ao TanakaLeeds
- Takehiro TomiyasuArsenal
Win 12 months of premium predictions FREE by picking match scores
Pick scorelines for upcoming fixtures. Every correct call moves you up the ladder. No payment, no card. Just predictions.
Start picking →Get the World Cup brief in your inbox — plus early FPL 2026/27 picks
Match-by-match predictions, captain picks for World Cup Fantasy, likely scorers, and the first FPL 2026/27 differentials to watch. Same engine that powers our Premier League tools, pointed at the world's biggest pre-season.
Weekly digest
Captain picks, transfer tips & differentials — every week.
One email per gameweek. Unsubscribe any time.
Tracking the World Cup? Use the same engine for FPL 2026/27.
v5 depth-2 GBT stacker · 51k+ OOS predictions · MAE 0.86. Captain picks, MILP squad optimiser, AI Coach, set-piece intel — the production Premier League tools.